Comments on: The end of the crash is nigh (but not the bear market). http://sovereignspeculator.com/2008/10/22/the-end-of-the-crash-is-nigh-but-not-the-bear-market/ Thoughts on the markets and the decline of the west Sun, 28 Nov 2010 09:52:24 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.6 By: Bjorn http://sovereignspeculator.com/2008/10/22/the-end-of-the-crash-is-nigh-but-not-the-bear-market/#comment-683 Bjorn Sun, 26 Oct 2008 00:25:10 +0000 http://sovereignspeculator.com/?p=2099#comment-683 Thanks Mike, I really appreciate your comments. Thanks Mike, I really appreciate your comments.

]]> By: Mike http://sovereignspeculator.com/2008/10/22/the-end-of-the-crash-is-nigh-but-not-the-bear-market/#comment-681 Mike Sat, 25 Oct 2008 21:24:20 +0000 http://sovereignspeculator.com/?p=2099#comment-681 I really don't like those ETFs anymore, b/c of the counterparty issues and the daily compounding that eats away or destroys returns if the market goes your way in a zig-zag instead of a straight line. Anyway, if I were not short at all at this moment I wouldn't step in until after an apparent bottom and countertrend rally. I like lay-ups. I plan to scale back into a stronger short position starting at just under 20% above the low, wherever it may be, and I will be prepared to add to that position if the market goes still higher -- a 30% rally would not surprise me. I really don’t like those ETFs anymore, b/c of the counterparty issues and the daily compounding that eats away or destroys returns if the market goes your way in a zig-zag instead of a straight line.

Anyway, if I were not short at all at this moment I wouldn’t step in until after an apparent bottom and countertrend rally. I like lay-ups. I plan to scale back into a stronger short position starting at just under 20% above the low, wherever it may be, and I will be prepared to add to that position if the market goes still higher — a 30% rally would not surprise me.

]]> By: Bjorn http://sovereignspeculator.com/2008/10/22/the-end-of-the-crash-is-nigh-but-not-the-bear-market/#comment-680 Bjorn Sat, 25 Oct 2008 20:25:15 +0000 http://sovereignspeculator.com/?p=2099#comment-680 Hi Mike, I want to check to make sure I'm reading you correcty. You are looking at DOW 7000 as an interim bottom, and you will consider going long at that point, at least for a while. Is that about right? I was thinking of getting into some inverse etf's next week (only because I can understand them more easily, and I'm hoping things are not so bad yet that the Funds themselves will be going broke), but if things might go into an exended rally at DOW 7000, this might not be the best time for me to enter into inverse ETF's. Theoretically speaking, if you were not shorting anything right now, would you tend to wait until after a significant rally, or would you still see the present moment as a decent time to go short, say with inverse ETF's? (I realize that you were getting out of ETF's due to a lack of disclosure. LEAPS sound good, but I'm still trying to figure them out, so ETF's might be the next best bet, I was thinking. Hi Mike,

I want to check to make sure I’m reading you correcty.

You are looking at DOW 7000 as an interim bottom, and you will consider going long at that point, at least for a while. Is that about right?

I was thinking of getting into some inverse etf’s next week (only because I can understand them more easily, and I’m hoping things are not so bad yet that the Funds themselves will be going broke), but if things might go into an exended rally at DOW 7000, this might not be the best time for me to enter into inverse ETF’s.

Theoretically speaking, if you were not shorting anything right now, would you tend to wait until after a significant rally, or would you still see the present moment as a decent time to go short, say with inverse ETF’s? (I realize that you were getting out of ETF’s due to a lack of disclosure. LEAPS sound good, but I’m still trying to figure them out, so ETF’s might be the next best bet, I was thinking.

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