Comments on: Cool-headed interview with John Nadler of Kitco http://sovereignspeculator.com/2008/10/26/cool-headed-interview-with-john-nadler-of-kitco/ Thoughts on the markets and the decline of the west Sun, 28 Nov 2010 10:31:23 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.6 By: Mike http://sovereignspeculator.com/2008/10/26/cool-headed-interview-with-john-nadler-of-kitco/#comment-704 Mike Wed, 29 Oct 2008 19:07:39 +0000 http://sovereignspeculator.com/?p=2122#comment-704 GLD is for trading only, not to own long term. For that you want the real thing in a form you can heft. I sold my Jan 09 GLD puts on Monday. Had been building that position on rallies since June. I still have some March puts. Thanks for the kind words on the blog. I've been a bit delinquent in posting this week since I am in the middle of a trans-oceanic move. GLD is for trading only, not to own long term. For that you want the real thing in a form you can heft.

I sold my Jan 09 GLD puts on Monday. Had been building that position on rallies since June. I still have some March puts.

Thanks for the kind words on the blog. I’ve been a bit delinquent in posting this week since I am in the middle of a trans-oceanic move.

]]> By: Andy http://sovereignspeculator.com/2008/10/26/cool-headed-interview-with-john-nadler-of-kitco/#comment-701 Andy Wed, 29 Oct 2008 18:05:22 +0000 http://sovereignspeculator.com/?p=2122#comment-701 Buying GLD puts in a rally is an interesting idea. I own it for the long term, but you can see a probably scenario of another event that drives gold to $850 and then the subsequent cooling of fears where it falls back to $750. I wouldn't want to sell a portion of the position on strength since it's basically an economic insurance policy, but putting a couple dollars of the gains back to work is an interesting play. If gold continues to go up, then you feel smart becasue you still have the position and have only lost your hedge, and if it cycles, then you've improved your cost basis. In other news, I discoverd this blog a week or so ago and love it. The DBA and XAU/GLD ratio posts were great insight, and the Kitco & Greenspan text illuminating. andy Buying GLD puts in a rally is an interesting idea. I own it for the long term, but you can see a probably scenario of another event that drives gold to $850 and then the subsequent cooling of fears where it falls back to $750.

I wouldn’t want to sell a portion of the position on strength since it’s basically an economic insurance policy, but putting a couple dollars of the gains back to work is an interesting play. If gold continues to go up, then you feel smart becasue you still have the position and have only lost your hedge, and if it cycles, then you’ve improved your cost basis.

In other news, I discoverd this blog a week or so ago and love it. The DBA and XAU/GLD ratio posts were great insight, and the Kitco & Greenspan text illuminating.

andy

]]> By: Mike http://sovereignspeculator.com/2008/10/26/cool-headed-interview-with-john-nadler-of-kitco/#comment-689 Mike Mon, 27 Oct 2008 00:09:28 +0000 http://sovereignspeculator.com/?p=2122#comment-689 Within 10 years, there is no question that the current monetary regime will break down -- 5 is even likely. I buy gold almost every week in preparation (though lately I have been buying puts on GLD on rallies to hedge). When that happens, the dollar price becomes meaningless -- it will be better to measure the price of dollars and everything else in gold. Nadler is a bit too sanguine about the severity of it all, but I like his points about the near-term dynamics at play, and that there has been no reason to load up at 800-900 per, since we have just entered a deflationary episode and physical will likely be available shortly at lower premiums. Within 10 years, there is no question that the current monetary regime will break down — 5 is even likely. I buy gold almost every week in preparation (though lately I have been buying puts on GLD on rallies to hedge). When that happens, the dollar price becomes meaningless — it will be better to measure the price of dollars and everything else in gold.

Nadler is a bit too sanguine about the severity of it all, but I like his points about the near-term dynamics at play, and that there has been no reason to load up at 800-900 per, since we have just entered a deflationary episode and physical will likely be available shortly at lower premiums.

]]> By: Mark http://sovereignspeculator.com/2008/10/26/cool-headed-interview-with-john-nadler-of-kitco/#comment-688 Mark Sun, 26 Oct 2008 23:52:09 +0000 http://sovereignspeculator.com/?p=2122#comment-688 If, in ten years, we look back at this period of unprecented financial turmoil where the Fed and the Treasury plowed huge amounts of government money into the private sector and we see that gold never again traded above $1000 and in fact stayed in the range of $650-$850, I will be flabbergasted. It certainly goes against my understanding of the history of fiat currencies. My feeling is that this is another one of those periods, of which we've had two or three or four since 2001, where it looks like the gold bull is over, only to be resurrected with new fury within a year or so. With the most socialist Democratic party in my memory coming into power - perhaps with a fillibuster-proof majority - and the debt already at such high levels, and the Chinese, Russians, and others disgruntled with US monetary policy, I can't believe that the dollar is going to hold its value at approximately the current level into the forseeable future. No way. If, in ten years, we look back at this period of unprecented financial turmoil where the Fed and the Treasury plowed huge amounts of government money into the private sector and we see that gold never again traded above $1000 and in fact stayed in the range of $650-$850, I will be flabbergasted. It certainly goes against my understanding of the history of fiat currencies.

My feeling is that this is another one of those periods, of which we’ve had two or three or four since 2001, where it looks like the gold bull is over, only to be resurrected with new fury within a year or so. With the most socialist Democratic party in my memory coming into power - perhaps with a fillibuster-proof majority - and the debt already at such high levels, and the Chinese, Russians, and others disgruntled with US monetary policy, I can’t believe that the dollar is going to hold its value at approximately the current level into the forseeable future. No way.

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