Comments on: So, where are we now?

By: Mike

Mike — Tue, 30 Dec 2008 20:27:49 +0000

That’s right. Waiting to buy gold cheaply is like playing chicken with a freight train. Best to scale in slowly, buying a bit every month.

Have you read Conquer the Crash? Fed printing will kill the Treasury market, which is deflationary. Sure, in the end it all will break and gold will rule, but don’t count out the dollar yet.

By: D.K.

D.K. — Tue, 30 Dec 2008 19:49:39 +0000

Inflationary depression or Prechter style deflationary armageddon? I don’t know. When to jump into gold? UGH its driving me crazy. I’m afraid of sitting on cash. We saw how bad things deteriorated in Iceland, a perfect microcosm of the states - an economy based not a true production (fish?) but of financial speculation. And their currency collapsed overnight. Can that happen in the states? I’m not entirely convinced if a 1930s style deflation of currency is possible, we are not on a gold standard. And we don’t even have to use printing presses anymore, its all strokes of a keyboard. The Fed is COMMITTED to stopping deflation at all costs. I think the bigger risk is to sit in cash! Sure gold might dip, but we can all agree what is going to happen in the future. But you wait one day long with the hyperinflationary scenario and your screwed. I am reluctantly buying gold now.

By: hcrosby

hcrosby — Wed, 17 Dec 2008 19:02:19 +0000

I think Uncle Ben’s helicopter drop may be working. Clearly the dollar has resumed its swoon, at least for now. Yesterday’s decision by the FED to send money flying around in ways never before contemplated changes the game in ways none of us can predict, because it is unprecedented. They have fired all the arrows in their quiver, so they have decided to creat new quivers and new arrows out of thin air…..totally unconstitutional, by who cares?

The charts on both Ag and AU now look very bullish, like maybe a bottom is now in place. I think we could see the depression continue to expand, even whilst the dollar is shredded. Prices in lots of assets will continue to fall in nominal terms, even worse in dollar terms, while some other things (gold and silver and who knows what else) The worst of all possible worlds.

Thomas Jefferson would be very, very disappointed in us.

By: Mike

Mike — Wed, 17 Dec 2008 18:24:48 +0000

Eric -

Comp sci is not going out of fashion any time soon. It is a skill set that has value everywhere you would want to go.

I don’t have any special advice about working abroad. Living in NYC, you are specially situated to meet people from outside the US, so make an effort to get to know them and ask about things where they are from. In this job market, the personal angle may be the only angle.

By: Joel

Joel — Wed, 17 Dec 2008 09:26:43 +0000

Why are people like you and I not running a hedgefund? I made many of the calls that you made while acquiring 10 million in assets over the past year. I entered the Investment Advisor world because I knew that if I could gather assets for a firm and convert them all to cash in 2008 because shorting was not aloud for rookies, staying in cash would still make me look like a hero.

You remind me of myself… I also sent out mass warnings to friends and prospects, calling the fall of many sectors one by one starting beginning with fall of banks through to the fall of the US dollar just recently. My goal was to have all my thoughts and moves in writing and dated with the logo of my firm (one of Canada s top banks) behind it. I was tired of trying to reach out to people on my own. Unfortunately, most people need see a recognized name backing you up for credibility.

-just recently moved clients back into the market because I am expecting short term rally.

Send me an email if you would like to chat.

By: Graphite

Graphite — Mon, 15 Dec 2008 02:50:56 +0000

Man, was it hard to stay short sometimes! I unwound 2/3 of my LEH puts the Fri before they filed for bankruptcy because I was so sure they’d get bailed out. A lot of decisions like that no doubt turned what could have been a 1000+% year into just 400 or so.

The good news is that it appears I will get many more opportunities for outsized returns. Already people are reasserting their conviction that the government will save the day. I’ll be quite happy to relieve them of that conceit for a substantial profit, when the time comes.

Congrats, it sounds like you had a great year.

By: hcrosby

hcrosby — Sun, 14 Dec 2008 15:31:44 +0000

Guten tag, Herr Mike. Ich denke fur ein Americaner, Deutsch ist nicht so schwerich. Du kann sehr gut Deutsch learnen in Zurich. Aber es ist nicht hoch Deutsch.

German aside, I very much appreciate the recent history lesson, as it all happened so fast that it was hard to fully appreciate the depth of what was going on.

This latest outrage, where the Senate blocked the auto bailout, only to have the Bush Administration say “Well, we are going to go ahead and do it anyway” ought to disabuse anyone who still thinks we have a functioning republic. New deal zwei under Mr. Obama will be an unmitigated disaster, and at the rate of bailouts, I think it will lead to hyperinflation sooner rather that later.

What is your view of TBT?

By: Eric

Eric — Sun, 14 Dec 2008 02:11:02 +0000

Thanks for sharing your insight Mike. I’m in NY right now and although I didn’t get caught up in the bubble, man do I wish I had found you before it all came tumbling down. I’m relatively young and unencumbered, but I feel like I’ve gotten a late start on preparing for what’s to come. I’m just now starting to consider relocating out of the U.S.

Do you have any suggestions for finding a job outside the U.S.? What would you recommend in terms of a career choice? I have a computer science degree, although I’m not sure of the viability of that line of work in the future.

Thanks again and keep up the great work.