Comments on: Fear recedes, so how will it return? http://sovereignspeculator.com/2009/01/02/fear-recides-so-how-will-it-return/ Thoughts on the markets and the decline of the west Thu, 10 Nov 2011 11:11:15 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.6 By: Mike http://sovereignspeculator.com/2009/01/02/fear-recides-so-how-will-it-return/#comment-1013 Mike Sun, 04 Jan 2009 16:37:48 +0000 http://sovereignspeculator.com/?p=2246#comment-1013 In that kind of situation, you can dynamically scale into positions. That is, if I had no shorts at the moment, maybe I would buy $1 of puts now, $2 at Dow 9300, $3 at 9600, and $4 at 10,000, or something like that. In that kind of situation, you can dynamically scale into positions. That is, if I had no shorts at the moment, maybe I would buy $1 of puts now, $2 at Dow 9300, $3 at 9600, and $4 at 10,000, or something like that.

]]> By: Graphite http://sovereignspeculator.com/2009/01/02/fear-recides-so-how-will-it-return/#comment-1010 Graphite Sun, 04 Jan 2009 09:26:04 +0000 http://sovereignspeculator.com/?p=2246#comment-1010 Well, I wasn't subscribing to the Gloom, Boom, & Doom Report back in the summer when I bailed on my commodity positions, but I was looking for Faber's interviews any time he popped up on Bloomberg or CNBC. I do subscribe now, though, if for no other reason than to pay him my appreciation for his good advice. He saved me far more than the $200 annual subscription fee. Like you I am looking for opportunities to get into long-term puts, but I'm deathly afraid that I will wait too long for premiums to come down. Well, I wasn’t subscribing to the Gloom, Boom, & Doom Report back in the summer when I bailed on my commodity positions, but I was looking for Faber’s interviews any time he popped up on Bloomberg or CNBC. I do subscribe now, though, if for no other reason than to pay him my appreciation for his good advice. He saved me far more than the $200 annual subscription fee.

Like you I am looking for opportunities to get into long-term puts, but I’m deathly afraid that I will wait too long for premiums to come down.

]]> By: Mike http://sovereignspeculator.com/2009/01/02/fear-recides-so-how-will-it-return/#comment-1001 Mike Sat, 03 Jan 2009 11:16:51 +0000 http://sovereignspeculator.com/?p=2246#comment-1001 I have 2010 50 strike puts on SPG. Bought them back in August or September, when the REITs were way up there. Haven't sold any. Do you subscribe to either of Faber's publications? I prefer very long term puts, but I'm not buying much here since the premiums are still so high and I already have a ton of them from before the crash. I took the unusual step of buying Jan 09 93 puts on DIA yesterday though -- there was almost no volatility premium in them, and I think we are short-term overbought. Will probably exit on Monday no matter what. The GDX puts are 28 and 32 March 09. I have 2010 50 strike puts on SPG. Bought them back in August or September, when the REITs were way up there. Haven’t sold any.

Do you subscribe to either of Faber’s publications?

I prefer very long term puts, but I’m not buying much here since the premiums are still so high and I already have a ton of them from before the crash. I took the unusual step of buying Jan 09 93 puts on DIA yesterday though — there was almost no volatility premium in them, and I think we are short-term overbought. Will probably exit on Monday no matter what.

The GDX puts are 28 and 32 March 09.

]]> By: Graphite http://sovereignspeculator.com/2009/01/02/fear-recides-so-how-will-it-return/#comment-999 Graphite Sat, 03 Jan 2009 06:38:30 +0000 http://sovereignspeculator.com/?p=2246#comment-999 So what kind of puts are you buying here? Long-term OOM LEAPs? How much downside are you looking for? Stock prices cut 75%, or Armageddon-style near complete collapse of their share prices? I netted some coin on some GDX calls thanks to Marc Faber. I agree it's time to go short again. Great opportunity to liquidate my stupid Perth Mint Certificate at a healthy profit too. You mention SPG in your current positions. Mind if I ask which date and strike price you're using there. All those nice, super-cheap 20 c PUTS with a 2.50 strike seem to have dried up! If only we could recruit some more penny harvesters to steamroll :-) So what kind of puts are you buying here? Long-term OOM LEAPs? How much downside are you looking for? Stock prices cut 75%, or Armageddon-style near complete collapse of their share prices?

I netted some coin on some GDX calls thanks to Marc Faber. I agree it’s time to go short again. Great opportunity to liquidate my stupid Perth Mint Certificate at a healthy profit too.

You mention SPG in your current positions. Mind if I ask which date and strike price you’re using there.

All those nice, super-cheap 20 c PUTS with a 2.50 strike seem to have dried up! If only we could recruit some more penny harvesters to steamroll :-)

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