Comments on: Sailors be warned

By: Aki_Izayoi

Aki_Izayoi — Mon, 01 Jun 2009 22:44:45 +0000

“In recent days I have even covered several long-standing short positions as stocks such as Microsoft, Harley Davidson, Burlington Northern, and Union Pacific have pushed to new lows.”

Hmm… those sound like companies that Warren Buffet has an interest in. Were you betting against him ?

By: Mike

Mike — Sat, 31 Jan 2009 12:45:35 +0000

Hey, sorry, I’ve been sans internet for 24 hours because we just moved across town and don’t have a home connection yet.

Yeah, bonds are looking pretty good again. I’d start to take a position and add to it if they go down more.

Sold that SRS at 60 yesterday, by the way. Had to use a limit order before the market open and cross my fingers. Buy-in for that chunk was 51. Still long a bit of it though, bought at 55 and 57. That thing might rocket again if we sell off hard, though I’ll aim to get out early.

By: Graphite

Graphite — Fri, 30 Jan 2009 13:52:12 +0000

Hey Mike, any thoughts on TLT? I’m going long at the market open today I think.

By: Mike

Mike — Wed, 28 Jan 2009 18:06:32 +0000

This rally’s a short, right here. I’m even buying SRS again for a quickie.

By: hcrosby

hcrosby — Wed, 28 Jan 2009 15:37:30 +0000

the market seems to want to rally this morning on the news that the “big tub of lard” is going to pass the House. Astonishing!

By: Graphite

Graphite — Wed, 28 Jan 2009 04:07:23 +0000

Vanguard just closed their Treasury MMF to new investors. Craziness … I just opened my account last week.

By: Vic

Vic — Wed, 28 Jan 2009 00:19:19 +0000

Sorry, not exactly screaming, but close enough.
BofA +9.2%
Citi +7.6%
WFC +3.8%
JPM +2.6%

RE: Long Bond. Marc Faber called shorting the long bond as the trade of 2009. I just hope that Gold gets to around 600 before this happens. The govt is just making this recession into a depression.

BTW, David Rosenberg has just said the “D” word in a note to his clients. How the heck can Merrill lose money by having a guy like him is beyond me.

By: Mike

Mike — Wed, 28 Jan 2009 00:06:38 +0000

Um, I’m not really hearing that screaming sound. XLF is $9. I covered my short at 15!!!

Yes, this is a complete kleptocracy. The programs and schemes evolve, but they are all basically the same: sell bonds and give the money to the banks as long as they need. If necessary, the Fed will monetize trillions.

The long bond is as near to a sure loss as you can get if you buy and hold it to maturity, but that doesn’t mean it can’t stay high for years before crashing.

Treasuries should stay strong as long as we are deflating: as long as credit continues to shrink faster than money is created and circulated. We have a long ways to go, so the govt will get away with running huge deficits for a long time.

It seems nuts, yeah, but the enormity of the private debt problem props up the dollar and treasuries.

By: Vic

Vic — Tue, 27 Jan 2009 23:47:33 +0000

Mike -
Looks like this government is going to pursue the “good bank/ bad bank” policy. Financials are screaming upwards AH. How do you think this will play out in terms of the long bond. Conventional thinking says that it will sell off, I mean who would be prepared to lend to the US govt when it is taking on so many liabilities? The gold rally may still have legs on it.
This has now become a complete kleptocracy if this plan is carried out.