Comments on: The Global Dow needs to crash some more. http://sovereignspeculator.com/2009/02/10/the-global-dow-needs-to-crash-some-more/ Thoughts on the markets and the decline of the west Sun, 28 Nov 2010 12:50:07 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.6 By: Andy http://sovereignspeculator.com/2009/02/10/the-global-dow-needs-to-crash-some-more/#comment-1332 Andy Fri, 27 Feb 2009 23:53:07 +0000 http://sovereignspeculator.com/?p=2324#comment-1332 CNBC is now cheerleading "deflation": http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=grUaPBU9Mww&feature=related I think that's it for the "deflation" theory. CNBC is now cheerleading “deflation”:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=grUaPBU9Mww&feature=related

I think that’s it for the “deflation” theory.

]]> By: Andy http://sovereignspeculator.com/2009/02/10/the-global-dow-needs-to-crash-some-more/#comment-1324 Andy Wed, 25 Feb 2009 23:40:47 +0000 http://sovereignspeculator.com/?p=2324#comment-1324 Soon the emperor (i.e. the dollar) will be naked for everyone to see. Soon the emperor (i.e. the dollar) will be naked for everyone to see.

]]> By: Andy http://sovereignspeculator.com/2009/02/10/the-global-dow-needs-to-crash-some-more/#comment-1323 Andy Wed, 25 Feb 2009 23:39:26 +0000 http://sovereignspeculator.com/?p=2324#comment-1323 Even Paul Craig Roberts, Assistant Secretary of the Treasury in the Reagan administration, admits gold price manipulation by the US Govt. Here ya go: http://www.counterpunch.org/roberts02242009.html Efficient markets - yeah right! Even Paul Craig Roberts, Assistant Secretary of the Treasury in the Reagan administration, admits gold price manipulation by the US Govt. Here ya go:

http://www.counterpunch.org/roberts02242009.html

Efficient markets - yeah right!

]]> By: Andy http://sovereignspeculator.com/2009/02/10/the-global-dow-needs-to-crash-some-more/#comment-1321 Andy Wed, 25 Feb 2009 20:58:00 +0000 http://sovereignspeculator.com/?p=2324#comment-1321 I recently got in touch with my former boss, and the subject of the current economic crisis came up. Well, all I can say is that I was just completely stunned at the level of ignorance still prevalent among "the masses" (having already drilled into the brains of all my present friends, relatives and acquaintances the "real" stuff, I no longer remembered what real ignorance looked like) . She - and this is a 50 yr. old person we are talking about - thought that the crisis was a just a media fed spiral and if only they would stop talking about it, it would go away. Now there is just so many things wrong with that, that I wont even try bothering with them here. So if anyone who is at least reading this blog (and others like it) feels that they have got it bad, just think about the amount of pain coming the way of people like these. And they constitute the majority. I shiver just thinking about what the future holds. I recently got in touch with my former boss, and the subject of the current economic crisis came up. Well, all I can say is that I was just completely stunned at the level of ignorance still prevalent among “the masses” (having already drilled into the brains of all my present friends, relatives and acquaintances the “real” stuff, I no longer remembered what real ignorance looked like) . She - and this is a 50 yr. old person we are talking about - thought that the crisis was a just a media fed spiral and if only they would stop talking about it, it would go away. Now there is just so many things wrong with that, that I wont even try bothering with them here. So if anyone who is at least reading this blog (and others like it) feels that they have got it bad, just think about the amount of pain coming the way of people like these. And they constitute the majority. I shiver just thinking about what the future holds.

]]> By: mike http://sovereignspeculator.com/2009/02/10/the-global-dow-needs-to-crash-some-more/#comment-1315 mike Tue, 24 Feb 2009 22:32:06 +0000 http://sovereignspeculator.com/?p=2324#comment-1315 Interesting strategy, but I think the market will rally hard and long after we finish wave 1, so I am just looking to get out. I don't try to pick the exact bottom -- I have been gradually selling my puts into the slide. BTW, today's bounce is probably part of a clearing rally that will set us up for the big drop. It was long overdue, but yesterday was almost certainly not the bottom. The NASDAQ, Russell and Nikkei need to break cleanly through their November lows first, which will likely put the S&P under 700. But really, guys... anyone who knows what they are doing has been short for 18 months now. Enjoy your profits and protect them. Don't chase this thing, because when it ends, the rally could give you whiplash. Interesting strategy, but I think the market will rally hard and long after we finish wave 1, so I am just looking to get out. I don’t try to pick the exact bottom — I have been gradually selling my puts into the slide.

BTW, today’s bounce is probably part of a clearing rally that will set us up for the big drop. It was long overdue, but yesterday was almost certainly not the bottom. The NASDAQ, Russell and Nikkei need to break cleanly through their November lows first, which will likely put the S&P under 700.

But really, guys… anyone who knows what they are doing has been short for 18 months now. Enjoy your profits and protect them. Don’t chase this thing, because when it ends, the rally could give you whiplash.

]]> By: spoonman http://sovereignspeculator.com/2009/02/10/the-global-dow-needs-to-crash-some-more/#comment-1309 spoonman Mon, 23 Feb 2009 21:19:45 +0000 http://sovereignspeculator.com/?p=2324#comment-1309 Mike Great blog. Just wanted to point out another option besides selling your long term puts. Instead of selling those puts outright, one thing you could consider doing is legging into a spread by selling the same number of puts at a lower strike. I generally consider doing this if the lower strikes sell for more than twice what I bought the original puts for. So for example, if I bought my original spy 70 puts at 5.00 each when the S&P was at 1000 and now the spy 65 puts are selling for 10.00 each, I'll take profits by selling one 65 put for every 70 put that I hold. That way, I've left some upside for myself if things deteriorate much more than expected, but I've protected profits too. The downside, obviously, is that you have potentially left some money on the table by not selling the puts you already hold for the highest possible price. If I can double my money or more, though, I'm not going to be too upset about that. Mike
Great blog. Just wanted to point out another option besides selling your long term puts. Instead of selling those puts outright, one thing you could consider doing is legging into a spread by selling the same number of puts at a lower strike. I generally consider doing this if the lower strikes sell for more than twice what I bought the original puts for. So for example, if I bought my original spy 70 puts at 5.00 each when the S&P was at 1000 and now the spy 65 puts are selling for 10.00 each, I’ll take profits by selling one 65 put for every 70 put that I hold. That way, I’ve left some upside for myself if things deteriorate much more than expected, but I’ve protected profits too. The downside, obviously, is that you have potentially left some money on the table by not selling the puts you already hold for the highest possible price. If I can double my money or more, though, I’m not going to be too upset about that.

]]> By: Andy http://sovereignspeculator.com/2009/02/10/the-global-dow-needs-to-crash-some-more/#comment-1301 Andy Sun, 22 Feb 2009 16:58:54 +0000 http://sovereignspeculator.com/?p=2324#comment-1301 My strategy right now is to extricate fiat profits whenever they come and convert a portion of them into gold on a regular basis. My strategy right now is to extricate fiat profits whenever they come and convert a portion of them into gold on a regular basis.

]]> By: Andy http://sovereignspeculator.com/2009/02/10/the-global-dow-needs-to-crash-some-more/#comment-1300 Andy Sun, 22 Feb 2009 16:53:21 +0000 http://sovereignspeculator.com/?p=2324#comment-1300 Mike: I think you are a good trader and have great feel for the markets (which is why I come here, BTW). However, I have some concerns as far as your outlook for Gold is concerned (and the deflation thesis as well). If you think that Gold is at an intermediate top in an ongoing bull run, then I'm with you totally. But, if you think that Gold is headed downwards after a manic top around the $1000 target in the next few days/weeks then I will be concerned and will have to discount your opinions as far as the gold market is concerned. The reason gold market concerns me so much is that at this point I wouldn't put my money anywhere near the USD or treasuries (except for the very short term) and also I don't think that any other currency is a safe haven at this point. Mike:
I think you are a good trader and have great feel for the markets (which is why I come here, BTW). However, I have some concerns as far as your outlook for Gold is concerned (and the deflation thesis as well). If you think that Gold is at an intermediate top in an ongoing bull run, then I’m with you totally. But, if you think that Gold is headed downwards after a manic top around the $1000 target in the next few days/weeks then I will be concerned and will have to discount your opinions as far as the gold market is concerned. The reason gold market concerns me so much is that at this point I wouldn’t put my money anywhere near the USD or treasuries (except for the very short term) and also I don’t think that any other currency is a safe haven at this point.

]]> By: Mike http://sovereignspeculator.com/2009/02/10/the-global-dow-needs-to-crash-some-more/#comment-1294 Mike Sat, 21 Feb 2009 16:09:53 +0000 http://sovereignspeculator.com/?p=2324#comment-1294 You can also buy Treasuries through brokers. Interactive Brokers is conservative and cheap for this. You can also buy Treasuries through brokers. Interactive Brokers is conservative and cheap for this.

]]> By: Mike http://sovereignspeculator.com/2009/02/10/the-global-dow-needs-to-crash-some-more/#comment-1293 Mike Sat, 21 Feb 2009 16:08:56 +0000 http://sovereignspeculator.com/?p=2324#comment-1293 You really don't need a bank for savings -- you can use treasurydirect or a treasury-only money market fund. Just use one of the big banks for a checking account, though you can even write checks from most MM funds. You really don’t need a bank for savings — you can use treasurydirect or a treasury-only money market fund. Just use one of the big banks for a checking account, though you can even write checks from most MM funds.

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