Sweet site dude, check out mine when you get a min……

http://seekingalpha.com/article/134820-the-worst-case-scenario-someone-has-to-say-it

http://seekingalpha.com/article/134904-sentiment-overview-bears-take-the-lead?source=article_lb_articles

Conditions are looking bullish for treasuries, but I do not think we are in the “oversold” area for that yet.

“Last weekend brought out Barron’s quarterly Big Money poll. The small group of strategists surveyed were decidedly optimistic with 59% stating they were either bullish or very bullish. While a surprising 58% stated that they didn’t believe the market had bottomed yet, almost the same percentage (59%) identified the stock market as the best asset class for the next 6 to 12 months going forward. I’ll leave you to ponder the riddle of their logic.

The problem with the Big Money poll is that in its history, as a group, it has never been truly bearish. So while we would like to use it as a contrarian measure, we really can’t because for the most part it has no edge.

Drilling down into the sectors, the most unloved were Transportation and Utilities. In contrast, the Big Money poll liked corporate bonds, emerging markets (Latin America & Asia) and oil. But the one thing they almost all agreed on (84%) was to be bearish on US treasuries. This is puzzling since they’ve been persistently bearish on bonds for the past 8 years in the face of a powerful bull market in that asset class - especially in 2008.

Wall St. Strategists
The insistent bearish stance of the Big Money poll participants is in contrast to the current recommended allocation by the average Wall St. strategist. Right now they’ve peaked at a suggestion of 38.9% of client portfolios to (US long term) bonds, which is the highest in 12+ years. The last time they were even close to this level was in 1998 (34% allocation) when bonds topped and didn’t regain their previous high for another 3 years.

The asset class garnering the highest allocation is equities with a 52% weighing. Similar to the Big Money poll, Wall St. strategists are never outright bearish. Their bullishness is either raging or reluctant. So put in that proper context, the current allocation is very timid. It is the lowest allocation to equities since 1997. And during the bear market bottom of 2002-2003, their equity allocation was 68%.”

“The Fed has tripled the size of its balance sheet, and the Obama administration is comfortable with running deficits that are close to 15% of GDP. The magnitude of that type of stimulus, monetary and fiscal, makes it virtually impossible to stick the landing on inflation.

But I expect it to be somewhat different than the inflation rate you saw in the 1970s, when there was broad-based inflation. So it is very possible that out of this policy, which is essentially focused on creating jobs and creating nominal GDP growth — as opposed to real GDP growth — that you get commodity-price inflation. That would be in the energy and basic-materials sectors — and gold. So those types of companies should do well over the longer term.”

“I actually believe the market saw its lows in March, but I also believe that we are moving into a period where returns are going to be a little bit like a ground war; that is, the easy part of the rally is over. We are using roughly $60 for Standard & Poor’s 500 operating earnings next year. Even if you assume a conservative multiple of 15, that gives you an S&P 500 of 900, versus around 845 last week.”
http://online.barrons.com/article/SB124061340301354557.html

Mike, don’t you love it when people disagree you? I hope this makes you happy.

I am sticking with the deflationary speculative thesis, and my hyperbolic discounting model and Darwinian shakeout view.

I do not think a commodities rally will be sustainable though. Mike’s the next bubble being cash is largely correct, and I do think the contango will kill any commodity rally (although copper is backwardated).