Comments on: Buy bonds! http://sovereignspeculator.com/2009/06/10/buy-bonds/ Thoughts on the markets and the decline of the west Sun, 28 Nov 2010 20:19:59 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.6 By: Graphite http://sovereignspeculator.com/2009/06/10/buy-bonds/#comment-3639 Graphite Mon, 15 Jun 2009 21:42:57 +0000 http://sovereignspeculator.com/?p=2406#comment-3639 Even if December marked the absolute lows in long-term yields for this cycle, there's no reason that bonds couldn't trade in a range for many years to come as the opposing forces of debt deflation and deficit-spending-via-Fed-monetization vie for dominance. The "double top" on the dollar chart is nicely sandwiched between a developing double bottom that traces out a much stronger bullish divergence. Being long the dollar, even aggressively so, is an attractive trade over at least the next few months as the "relation trade" and the hyperinflation chorus recently holding court in the Bloomberg headlines should be called into question. Even if December marked the absolute lows in long-term yields for this cycle, there’s no reason that bonds couldn’t trade in a range for many years to come as the opposing forces of debt deflation and deficit-spending-via-Fed-monetization vie for dominance.

The “double top” on the dollar chart is nicely sandwiched between a developing double bottom that traces out a much stronger bullish divergence. Being long the dollar, even aggressively so, is an attractive trade over at least the next few months as the “relation trade” and the hyperinflation chorus recently holding court in the Bloomberg headlines should be called into question.

]]> By: SG http://sovereignspeculator.com/2009/06/10/buy-bonds/#comment-3572 SG Sat, 13 Jun 2009 10:03:44 +0000 http://sovereignspeculator.com/?p=2406#comment-3572 I meant massive bearish divergence with both RSI and MACD. I meant massive bearish divergence with both RSI and MACD.

]]> By: SG http://sovereignspeculator.com/2009/06/10/buy-bonds/#comment-3571 SG Sat, 13 Jun 2009 10:01:02 +0000 http://sovereignspeculator.com/?p=2406#comment-3571 It's probably OK as a (very) short term trade, but if you are considering buy-and-hope...er...hold, forget it. It's probably one of the WORST investments you are going to make over your presumably short trading/investing career. 10 year treasury yields have made the "Golden Cross' to the upside which means a sustained uptrend for at least some time to come, and the dollar has made the same to the downside. In addition if you look at the double top on the dollar chart, there is a MASSIVE bearish divergence. The technicals look EXTREMELY weak. It’s probably OK as a (very) short term trade, but if you are considering buy-and-hope…er…hold, forget it. It’s probably one of the WORST investments you are going to make over your presumably short trading/investing career. 10 year treasury yields have made the “Golden Cross’ to the upside which means a sustained uptrend for at least some time to come, and the dollar has made the same to the downside. In addition if you look at the double top on the dollar chart, there is a MASSIVE bearish divergence. The technicals look EXTREMELY weak.

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