Comments on: Robert Prechter interview

By: Mike

Mike — Thu, 20 Aug 2009 19:15:23 +0000

Nah, Ang, life goes on. Credit busts, dishonest politicians and scheming bankers are just part of history.

And Ang, don’t be so sure about the whole heat thing — that’s just another scheme to transfer wealth to the bankers while the politicians tell us it’s for our own good. I have a masters in environmental science, and I have seen no compelling evidence that global warming is anything but hot air. The earth has warmed by 0.6 degrees in the last 100 years, and even that is a maybe.

By: Ang

Ang — Thu, 20 Aug 2009 19:10:06 +0000

Actually guys, it dosn’t matter about who is right or wrong,
the end result is that families are the ones that suffer when games are played on wall street by these thieves.
We probably won’t even have a planet left as we know it in 3 and a half years.
Tsunami’s, extreme heat, volcanoe erruptions and earthquakes will see to that

By: Pej

Pej — Wed, 29 Jul 2009 14:19:48 +0000

According to this Bloomberg screenshot published by ZeroHedge, the bear capitulation seems to be complete:
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/SI%20Plunge.jpg

By: Anonymous 2

Anonymous 2 — Wed, 24 Jun 2009 15:09:29 +0000

But we may be in trading range between S&P 500 to 1000 for the next 10 years …. Again, the net net will be zero unless you invest in some of the best Divididend stocks … I am focussing on those people who are in the mid 40’s .. and they may not want to risk their remaining captial and future earnings in a market that is NOT going to go anywhere … I really think people should look at short term option plays if they have the time to scan every single day for a 2 to 8 day trade horizons … or pay some service to do it …

By: Mike

Mike — Wed, 24 Jun 2009 02:32:41 +0000

Yeah, it’s so simple. He said that we were in a massive credit bubble and that it’s bursting would be deflationary despite the Fed’s best efforts. He’s recommended cash and short-term bonds in strong institutions, with a touch of gold and silver. He’s recommended shorting at times, but has always said that the best money is made by going long at secular lows.

What’s to disparage here?

By: greg k

greg k — Wed, 24 Jun 2009 02:25:51 +0000

i read prechters book and heres what i got so far in comparison to whats going on now:

prechter on gold - yes long term, short term no.
prechter on tbonds - yes , but due to us treasuries, may default so…no?
prechter on shorting - yes, until bottom hits/put it in a bearfund
prechter on cash - put it in a swiss bank account.

so thats it. preserve your cash and wait for the bottom.

By: Mike

Mike — Wed, 24 Jun 2009 00:58:13 +0000

“If the Fed keeps them, the losses will subtract from the Fed’s normal profit transfers to the treasury.”

Good point. Not many people have this level of understanding of the fed.

By: Max

Max — Wed, 24 Jun 2009 00:20:04 +0000

“Of course, if they do find a way to get the U.S. Treasury to overpay for all those bad assets, you could argue that those assets weren’t really “junk” so much as a trojan horse for transferring losses to the taxpayer.”

It doesn’t matter whether or not they are removed from the Fed’s balance sheet; the taxpayer eats the loss either way. If the Fed keeps them, the losses will subtract from the Fed’s normal profit transfers to the treasury.

By: Anonymous 2

Anonymous 2 — Tue, 23 Jun 2009 06:18:27 +0000

Last point: In a public forum we want to exchange ideas and share information to enrich our subject matter and skills .. not humiliate and ridicule others …

By: Anonymous 2

Anonymous 2 — Tue, 23 Jun 2009 06:15:21 +0000

Yep, I agree, it’s good to see comments like SG above. I use
the F word all the time but in a public forum, it’s not acceptable. There seems to be two schools of thought: It’s either deflation or inflation. Inflation due to the extreme money printing and deflation as all the bad debts need to be written off. We are in a unique situation though: We are printing money out of thin air to pay off all the bad debts. Hummm, so instead of resetting to zero and getting rid of bad companies, we are transferring the bad debts to the the Govt’s balance sheet. Where is it going to go from there? Extra taxes. In addition, with the massive amount of
debt, at some point the US credit will get cut … and there goes interest rates up … there goes the housing market too!

Now, let’s say you are someone who started to work at age 19 years ago (1990) out of school and contributed 10% of your income into a 401K. Essentially, you have only 5 years of +ve returns and have lost 15 years of savings. Ok, so you have another 20 years of earnings … but you also have to pay for the kids school .. essentially you have passed the point of no return … if you invest you are once again risking loosing money for the next 20 most crtical years of your life if the stock market goes up and down or nowhere for the next
20 years … maybe up for 5 years net/net … how are you going to save for your retirement savings and kids college/marriage etc. What are you going to do? Save and save like heck … sock it all away. How many times are we going go through bubble after bubble and be taken
for a ride? No, people are not going to risk the stock market again … Now, here come’s the revenge of communism … China’s consumption will drive commodities higher …. a growing population’s demand for water, oil, energy resources are only going to go up exponentially … So there you go again with the final punch … In summary …

1. Increased Taxes
2. Debt degrading / Higher Interest rates
3. Increased Savings rate / Very little consumer spending
4. Higher commodity prices / Higher Cost of living ..

Too me this looks like stagflation ….
Here’s some interesting into: http://www.voxeu.org/index.php?q=node/3421

Well, that’s it for me …. the only option IMO is fast option based trades with your risk capital and then you save the rest … (20/80 mix)