Comments on: With every new low in the VIX, I buy more puts http://sovereignspeculator.com/2009/07/22/with-every-new-low-in-the-vix-i-buy-more-puts/ Thoughts on the markets and the decline of the west Sun, 28 Nov 2010 18:44:38 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.6 By: Pej http://sovereignspeculator.com/2009/07/22/with-every-new-low-in-the-vix-i-buy-more-puts/#comment-4657 Pej Sat, 25 Jul 2009 12:15:00 +0000 http://sovereignspeculator.com/?p=2510#comment-4657 Mike, I don't see which bubble you are talking about. The Nasdaq has only had its 12th up day in a row and the crisis being obviously over, i don't see any problem. And the fact that M$ profits felt 20% while they have the biggest monopoly in the world and is one of the most relevant companies in terms of corporate and individuals spending doesn't mean anything. By the way, what strikes are you buying? At the money? Mike, I don’t see which bubble you are talking about. The Nasdaq has only had its 12th up day in a row and the crisis being obviously over, i don’t see any problem. And the fact that M$ profits felt 20% while they have the biggest monopoly in the world and is one of the most relevant companies in terms of corporate and individuals spending doesn’t mean anything.

By the way, what strikes are you buying? At the money?

]]> By: Pej http://sovereignspeculator.com/2009/07/22/with-every-new-low-in-the-vix-i-buy-more-puts/#comment-4604 Pej Thu, 23 Jul 2009 13:55:48 +0000 http://sovereignspeculator.com/?p=2510#comment-4604 I agree guys. I have a longer term horizon, and I am adding to my shorts when markets make new highs. My hedges worked quite well until June which was a bad month for my portfolio, but july seems to be better. Also, I am liquidating some short term long position I was lucky enough to be around the lows of March. Good luck to all. I agree guys. I have a longer term horizon, and I am adding to my shorts when markets make new highs. My hedges worked quite well until June which was a bad month for my portfolio, but july seems to be better. Also, I am liquidating some short term long position I was lucky enough to be around the lows of March.

Good luck to all.

]]> By: Mike http://sovereignspeculator.com/2009/07/22/with-every-new-low-in-the-vix-i-buy-more-puts/#comment-4600 Mike Thu, 23 Jul 2009 12:33:00 +0000 http://sovereignspeculator.com/?p=2510#comment-4600 That's right. The markets are rarely rational, and then only as a stopped clock can be right. If trading from a short-term perspective (like with levered ETFs, short term options, plain vanilla shorting, or futures), you have to use tight stops at key levels (however you determine them) and be ready to sit it out until you get another set-up. I prefer to trade with a horizon of at least 18 months, if not 24 or 30, so that the drawdowns are less severe and I have plenty of time to be right. That’s right. The markets are rarely rational, and then only as a stopped clock can be right.

If trading from a short-term perspective (like with levered ETFs, short term options, plain vanilla shorting, or futures), you have to use tight stops at key levels (however you determine them) and be ready to sit it out until you get another set-up.

I prefer to trade with a horizon of at least 18 months, if not 24 or 30, so that the drawdowns are less severe and I have plenty of time to be right.

]]> By: Anonymous 2 http://sovereignspeculator.com/2009/07/22/with-every-new-low-in-the-vix-i-buy-more-puts/#comment-4599 Anonymous 2 Thu, 23 Jul 2009 12:27:08 +0000 http://sovereignspeculator.com/?p=2510#comment-4599 Pej: Sorry to hear about your situation. We will have 5 weeks of up and up so be carefull ... but, we need this next stage of irrational bullishness to set us up for hte next plunge down ... it's how things work. Markets are never rational ... Pej: Sorry to hear about your situation. We will have 5 weeks of up and up so be carefull … but, we need this next stage of irrational bullishness to set us up for hte next plunge down … it’s how things work. Markets are never rational …

]]> By: Pej http://sovereignspeculator.com/2009/07/22/with-every-new-low-in-the-vix-i-buy-more-puts/#comment-4597 Pej Thu, 23 Jul 2009 12:17:45 +0000 http://sovereignspeculator.com/?p=2510#comment-4597 I would agree on the overvaluation, but then again, the whole market is overvalued. I'm really short, but i'm also a big worried because this rebound seems to have no end and thinking of the only times JM Keynes made sense: "the markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent" I would agree on the overvaluation, but then again, the whole market is overvalued. I’m really short, but i’m also a big worried because this rebound seems to have no end and thinking of the only times JM Keynes made sense: “the markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent”

]]> By: Anonymous 2 http://sovereignspeculator.com/2009/07/22/with-every-new-low-in-the-vix-i-buy-more-puts/#comment-4591 Anonymous 2 Thu, 23 Jul 2009 05:21:42 +0000 http://sovereignspeculator.com/?p=2510#comment-4591 Correction: I see no reason why we not will hit S&P 1200 / Naz 2300 / Dow 10000 before they roll over to the down .... in 2009 / Early 2010 Correction:

I see no reason why we not will hit S&P 1200 / Naz 2300 / Dow 10000 before they roll over to the down …. in 2009 / Early 2010

]]> By: Anonymous 2 http://sovereignspeculator.com/2009/07/22/with-every-new-low-in-the-vix-i-buy-more-puts/#comment-4590 Anonymous 2 Thu, 23 Jul 2009 05:19:29 +0000 http://sovereignspeculator.com/?p=2510#comment-4590 I see no reason why we will hit S&P 1200 / Nazday 2300 / Down 10000 before they roill over to the down ... I see no reason why we will hit S&P 1200 / Nazday 2300 / Down 10000 before they roill over to the down …

]]>