Comments on: The bears capitulate http://sovereignspeculator.com/2009/07/27/the-bears-capitulate/ Thoughts on the markets and the decline of the west Sun, 28 Nov 2010 18:38:22 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.6 By: Pej http://sovereignspeculator.com/2009/07/27/the-bears-capitulate/#comment-4792 Pej Thu, 30 Jul 2009 16:35:47 +0000 http://sovereignspeculator.com/?p=2532#comment-4792 The markets seem to be confirming the gut feeling I had yesterday that the declines were not conclusive and actually quite disappointing and showing lots of bullishness still :-( The markets seem to be confirming the gut feeling I had yesterday that the declines were not conclusive and actually quite disappointing and showing lots of bullishness still :-(

]]> By: Mike http://sovereignspeculator.com/2009/07/27/the-bears-capitulate/#comment-4746 Mike Wed, 29 Jul 2009 20:09:41 +0000 http://sovereignspeculator.com/?p=2532#comment-4746 New thread. New thread.

]]> By: PEJ http://sovereignspeculator.com/2009/07/27/the-bears-capitulate/#comment-4745 PEJ Wed, 29 Jul 2009 20:05:48 +0000 http://sovereignspeculator.com/?p=2532#comment-4745 Would you have any explanation but algo trading or maybe intraday short closing? Also, I feel like the market is exactly like july-august 2007, when I got massively short and the decline didn't happen and the dow actually did a new all time high and mass hysteria and irrational exuberance was at the highest levels (and of course, rates were cut and subprime was contained). 2007 saw a minor decline only, and we had to wait until 2008 to get the market readjustment. So, while I haven't closed any short position, I feel the pain and know that it might take a lot longer than I think for this bullish hysteria to reverse... Would you have any explanation but algo trading or maybe intraday short closing?

Also, I feel like the market is exactly like july-august 2007, when I got massively short and the decline didn’t happen and the dow actually did a new all time high and mass hysteria and irrational exuberance was at the highest levels (and of course, rates were cut and subprime was contained). 2007 saw a minor decline only, and we had to wait until 2008 to get the market readjustment.

So, while I haven’t closed any short position, I feel the pain and know that it might take a lot longer than I think for this bullish hysteria to reverse…

]]> By: Mike http://sovereignspeculator.com/2009/07/27/the-bears-capitulate/#comment-4744 Mike Wed, 29 Jul 2009 19:57:11 +0000 http://sovereignspeculator.com/?p=2532#comment-4744 The 3:30 ramp happens a lot, but if you really look at the data, not as often as it seems. The 3:30 ramp happens a lot, but if you really look at the data, not as often as it seems.

]]> By: PEJ http://sovereignspeculator.com/2009/07/27/the-bears-capitulate/#comment-4743 PEJ Wed, 29 Jul 2009 19:51:17 +0000 http://sovereignspeculator.com/?p=2532#comment-4743 No worries, I agree with you. But collateral dammages are numerous. And yet again, I don't see treasuries or stocks declining today. Like during every decline in the past 4-5 months, there's a major upward move in the last 30min of the day bringing the indices either close to flat or even higher... And as I mentioned yesterday, it looks like a market collapse will push the USD higher... No worries, I agree with you. But collateral dammages are numerous.
And yet again, I don’t see treasuries or stocks declining today. Like during every decline in the past 4-5 months, there’s a major upward move in the last 30min of the day bringing the indices either close to flat or even higher… And as I mentioned yesterday, it looks like a market collapse will push the USD higher…

]]> By: Mike http://sovereignspeculator.com/2009/07/27/the-bears-capitulate/#comment-4742 Mike Wed, 29 Jul 2009 19:35:03 +0000 http://sovereignspeculator.com/?p=2532#comment-4742 Today is encouraging from a bear's eye view because the commodity, bond and currency action confirms the modest move in equities. But then, perhaps this is just a sideways correction prior to a blowoff... who knows. Please let's not get preachy. If you think credit bubbles are good, then by all means go work for the Fed and try to revive this one. I for one welcome the Big Flush, since it offers some hope of restoring sanity to a society that's become more than a little sick in the head. And yes, even shorting is good if it puts some capital in the hands of a few people with a sense of reality. Remember, the damage was done in the boom (through a misallocation of resources). The bust is just the process of taking an honest accounting and getting back on track. It is an absolutely necessary phase of this project called civilization. Today is encouraging from a bear’s eye view because the commodity, bond and currency action confirms the modest move in equities. But then, perhaps this is just a sideways correction prior to a blowoff… who knows.

Please let’s not get preachy. If you think credit bubbles are good, then by all means go work for the Fed and try to revive this one. I for one welcome the Big Flush, since it offers some hope of restoring sanity to a society that’s become more than a little sick in the head. And yes, even shorting is good if it puts some capital in the hands of a few people with a sense of reality.

Remember, the damage was done in the boom (through a misallocation of resources). The bust is just the process of taking an honest accounting and getting back on track. It is an absolutely necessary phase of this project called civilization.

]]> By: PEJ http://sovereignspeculator.com/2009/07/27/the-bears-capitulate/#comment-4740 PEJ Wed, 29 Jul 2009 19:20:54 +0000 http://sovereignspeculator.com/?p=2532#comment-4740 Mike said: "today is encouraging, but again, if this is the start of a drop, the question remains, what kind of drop?" Mike, First, I don't find this tiny decline any conclusive. Yesterday saw 1% intraday decline that keeps on rebounding intraday, to finish almost flat or positive, and today is yet again another unconvincing decline. Second, It's a bit strong to use the word "encouraging" while we are "hoping" for the end of world to just make some bucks :-) People are going to suffer in this mess, and those who are going to suffer the most are probably also those who took the less advantage of the previous "boom". :-( (note that the words are in quotes) Mike said: “today is encouraging, but again, if this is the start of a drop, the question remains, what kind of drop?”

Mike,

First, I don’t find this tiny decline any conclusive. Yesterday saw 1% intraday decline that keeps on rebounding intraday, to finish almost flat or positive, and today is yet again another unconvincing decline.

Second, It’s a bit strong to use the word “encouraging” while we are “hoping” for the end of world to just make some bucks :-)

People are going to suffer in this mess, and those who are going to suffer the most are probably also those who took the less advantage of the previous “boom”. :-(

(note that the words are in quotes)

]]> By: jason bourne http://sovereignspeculator.com/2009/07/27/the-bears-capitulate/#comment-4738 jason bourne Wed, 29 Jul 2009 17:37:29 +0000 http://sovereignspeculator.com/?p=2532#comment-4738 AXclr8 ... funny thing, why did he choose 7% (the most often he mentioned)? Sounds like the Chinese rate of growth or maybe just to make it convenient: 70/7 = 10. Anyhow, that video implies one thing: Chinese rate of growth is NOT SUSTAINABLE or... it could be a LIE. AXclr8 … funny thing, why did he choose 7% (the most often he mentioned)? Sounds like the Chinese rate of growth or maybe just to make it convenient: 70/7 = 10.

Anyhow, that video implies one thing: Chinese rate of growth is NOT SUSTAINABLE or… it could be a LIE.

]]> By: Axclr8 http://sovereignspeculator.com/2009/07/27/the-bears-capitulate/#comment-4737 Axclr8 Wed, 29 Jul 2009 17:22:36 +0000 http://sovereignspeculator.com/?p=2532#comment-4737 Ummm ... above video only for the patient! IT's long .... (8 parts) ... sorry everyone. Ummm … above video only for the patient! IT’s long …. (8 parts) … sorry everyone.

]]> By: Axclr8 http://sovereignspeculator.com/2009/07/27/the-bears-capitulate/#comment-4736 Axclr8 Wed, 29 Jul 2009 17:02:23 +0000 http://sovereignspeculator.com/?p=2532#comment-4736 Guys, you have to see this VIDEO: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F-QA2rkpBSY The Most IMPORTANT Video You'll Ever See ! Guys, you have to see this VIDEO:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F-QA2rkpBSY

The Most IMPORTANT Video You’ll Ever See !

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