Comments on: The bears capitulate

By: Pej

Pej — Thu, 30 Jul 2009 16:35:47 +0000

The markets seem to be confirming the gut feeling I had yesterday that the declines were not conclusive and actually quite disappointing and showing lots of bullishness still

By: Mike

Mike — Wed, 29 Jul 2009 20:09:41 +0000

New thread.

By: PEJ

PEJ — Wed, 29 Jul 2009 20:05:48 +0000

Would you have any explanation but algo trading or maybe intraday short closing?

Also, I feel like the market is exactly like july-august 2007, when I got massively short and the decline didn’t happen and the dow actually did a new all time high and mass hysteria and irrational exuberance was at the highest levels (and of course, rates were cut and subprime was contained). 2007 saw a minor decline only, and we had to wait until 2008 to get the market readjustment.

So, while I haven’t closed any short position, I feel the pain and know that it might take a lot longer than I think for this bullish hysteria to reverse…

By: Mike

Mike — Wed, 29 Jul 2009 19:57:11 +0000

The 3:30 ramp happens a lot, but if you really look at the data, not as often as it seems.

By: PEJ

PEJ — Wed, 29 Jul 2009 19:51:17 +0000

No worries, I agree with you. But collateral dammages are numerous.
And yet again, I don’t see treasuries or stocks declining today. Like during every decline in the past 4-5 months, there’s a major upward move in the last 30min of the day bringing the indices either close to flat or even higher… And as I mentioned yesterday, it looks like a market collapse will push the USD higher…

By: Mike

Mike — Wed, 29 Jul 2009 19:35:03 +0000

Today is encouraging from a bear’s eye view because the commodity, bond and currency action confirms the modest move in equities. But then, perhaps this is just a sideways correction prior to a blowoff… who knows.

Please let’s not get preachy. If you think credit bubbles are good, then by all means go work for the Fed and try to revive this one. I for one welcome the Big Flush, since it offers some hope of restoring sanity to a society that’s become more than a little sick in the head. And yes, even shorting is good if it puts some capital in the hands of a few people with a sense of reality.

Remember, the damage was done in the boom (through a misallocation of resources). The bust is just the process of taking an honest accounting and getting back on track. It is an absolutely necessary phase of this project called civilization.

By: PEJ

PEJ — Wed, 29 Jul 2009 19:20:54 +0000

Mike said: “today is encouraging, but again, if this is the start of a drop, the question remains, what kind of drop?”

Mike,

First, I don’t find this tiny decline any conclusive. Yesterday saw 1% intraday decline that keeps on rebounding intraday, to finish almost flat or positive, and today is yet again another unconvincing decline.

Second, It’s a bit strong to use the word “encouraging” while we are “hoping” for the end of world to just make some bucks

People are going to suffer in this mess, and those who are going to suffer the most are probably also those who took the less advantage of the previous “boom”.

(note that the words are in quotes)

By: jason bourne

jason bourne — Wed, 29 Jul 2009 17:37:29 +0000

AXclr8 … funny thing, why did he choose 7% (the most often he mentioned)? Sounds like the Chinese rate of growth or maybe just to make it convenient: 70/7 = 10.

Anyhow, that video implies one thing: Chinese rate of growth is NOT SUSTAINABLE or… it could be a LIE.

By: Axclr8

Axclr8 — Wed, 29 Jul 2009 17:22:36 +0000

Ummm … above video only for the patient! IT’s long …. (8 parts) … sorry everyone.

By: Axclr8

Axclr8 — Wed, 29 Jul 2009 17:02:23 +0000

Guys, you have to see this VIDEO:

The Most IMPORTANT Video You’ll Ever See !