7 Responses to “Hugh Hendry walks around China”

1. jason bourne
   August 19th, 2009 at 5:39 am

   

   “Who is going to pay the stimulus that that stock market is resting on? …A bullish (bullshit sounds better, actually) stock market with no fundamentals. More than a trillion dollars of fake recoveries.”

   Answer: the government, in very painful ways.

   “…very expensive, hollow stocks where the speculator/stimulator/banks will go bust.”

   “I have seen all signs of a accounting manipulations top-down anywhere here.”

2. Axclr8
   August 19th, 2009 at 7:42 am

   

   Re: Accountunf Manipulation: Indian companies have never had to reveal TRUE earnings per accounting rules:

   http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/2009/06/01/stories/2009060151440100.htm

   “The vast majority of Indian companies do not report quarterly balance sheets or cash flow statements, so one can’t look at the “Other comprehensive income” item on the balance sheet to figure out what exactly has happened. There is no way for anyone now to figure out what uneconomic transactions all these companies have done. ”

   http://gaurav1.blogspot.com/2009/03/joke-called-indian-accounting-standards.html

   “Following this amendment, companies with forex loans can now adjust the loss or gain arising from currency fluctuation by adding to or deducting from the cost of fixed asset, if such borrowing were incurred for acquiring the asset. The treatment, in essence, would help bypass the P&L account and make adjustments directly in the balance sheet, thus providing immediate relief to earnings.

   Take the case of Tata Motors. The company, in its notes to accounts, has stated that its net profits for the full year were higher by Rs 418 crore as a result of opting for the amendment. The company’s reported net profits for the year were Rs 1,001 crore. It’s per share earnings of Rs 22.7 would have been lower by as much as 40 per cent had it recorded the fluctuation in its P&L.

   For others such as JSW Steel, Ashok Leyland and Bharat Forge, the change in accounting practice may have been a blessing in disguise atleast for FY-09 as it reduced or averted losses. ”

   No wonder, Jim rogers refuses to purchase ANY Indian stocks ….. (and me too!)

   I travel to Asia Pacific region 4 times a year …. in the beginning I was astounded by the growth .. then I realized it was all leveraged funds from Hedge funds, Companies boosting theisr expenses and using Indian/Chinese revenues to boost their balance sheets …. poor people there … they have no clue what is about to happen ….

3. Mike
   August 19th, 2009 at 7:49 am

   

   Jason, yes, there is manipulation in the markets and always will be. The point is that is doesn’t matter on any time scale beyond a day. Herd behavior is what creates the patterns, and it is never rational, not even when the markets are “fairly valued.”

   In some fantasy world of honest bankers and politicians, the market would have done the same thing, and people would have created other equally incorrect explanations for the bounce.

4. Axclr8
   August 19th, 2009 at 2:24 pm

   

   Buffett: We’re Going to Be Crushed Under Mountain of Debt

   Some not-so-fun facts from Buffett’s editorial today in the New York Times:

   Congress is now spending 185% of what it takes in
   Our deficit is a post WWII record of 13% of GDP
   Our debt is growing by 1% a month
   We are borrowing $1.8 trillion a year
   $1.8 trillion is a lot of money. Even if the Chinese lend us $400 billion a year and Americans save a remarkable $500 billion and lend it to the government, we’ll still need another $900 billion.

   So, where’s it going to come from? Most likely the printing press. And, ultimately, Buffett says, that will destroy the value of the dollar.

   http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/306287/Buffett-We‘re-Going-to-Be-Crushed-Under-Mountain-of-Deb

5. Axclr8
   August 19th, 2009 at 3:42 pm

   

   Completed Link from last post re Buffett:

   http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/306287/Buffett-We‘re-Going-to-Be-Crushed-Under-Mountain-of-Debt

6. Pej
   August 20th, 2009 at 11:30 am

   

   Zero Hedge is publishing a AEI report from title China: Bogus Boom?

   http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/Bogus%20Boom.pdf

7. Noah
   August 24th, 2009 at 12:24 am

   

   I live in Macau where there is a ton of stalled or super-delayed construction. For some reason rich Chinese love real estate even though there isn’t the demand for luxury office or living space like there is in western countries.