Comments on: She’ll be comin’ round the corner when she comes… http://sovereignspeculator.com/2009/09/12/shell-be-comin-round-the-corner-when-she-comes/ Thoughts on the markets and the decline of the west Tue, 15 Nov 2011 07:48:07 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.6 By: golfboy http://sovereignspeculator.com/2009/09/12/shell-be-comin-round-the-corner-when-she-comes/#comment-6022 golfboy Mon, 14 Sep 2009 06:17:07 +0000 http://sovereignspeculator.com/?p=2782#comment-6022 Mike, there's a very *bullish* wave count for gold at http://marketthoughtsandanalysis.blogspot.com/ It puts gold currently in a primary wave 3 up. What do you make of it? I wonder if there is anything wrong with the count from a technical (EW) standpoint. An impulsive wave that starts with two diagonals (the waves 1 and 2) seems like a rare occurrence. Mike, there’s a very *bullish* wave count for gold at
http://marketthoughtsandanalysis.blogspot.com/
It puts gold currently in a primary wave 3 up. What do you make of it? I wonder if there is anything wrong with the count from a technical (EW) standpoint. An impulsive wave that starts with two diagonals (the waves 1 and 2) seems like a rare occurrence.

]]> By: Aki_Izayoi http://sovereignspeculator.com/2009/09/12/shell-be-comin-round-the-corner-when-she-comes/#comment-6018 Aki_Izayoi Mon, 14 Sep 2009 01:41:52 +0000 http://sovereignspeculator.com/?p=2782#comment-6018 Nevermind... the argument was better presented here: http://books.google.com/books?id=uSykSbXklWEC&pg=PA100#v=onepage&q=&f=false (Barrow and Tipler Anthropic Cosmological Principle pg 100-101) . Nevermind… the argument was better presented here:

http://books.google.com/books?id=uSykSbXklWEC&pg=PA100#v=onepage&q=&f=false (Barrow and Tipler Anthropic Cosmological Principle pg 100-101) .

]]> By: Aki_Izayoi http://sovereignspeculator.com/2009/09/12/shell-be-comin-round-the-corner-when-she-comes/#comment-6017 Aki_Izayoi Mon, 14 Sep 2009 01:12:47 +0000 http://sovereignspeculator.com/?p=2782#comment-6017 Some fodder for the Prechter bashers: http://online.barrons.com/article/SB1036205791135578991.html?mod=this_weeks_barrons_features_hs (From 2002 where he didn't call a bottom then) Well, I found this by searching for protectionism and social mood. I wonder if the politicians will support Obama's tariff (I suppose they would,) but of course interest groups would support it. If we assume protectionism does lead to long term economic growth, one can simulate the effects of protectionism with the iterative prisoner's dilemma where the participants are individual countries (this does not simulate politics correctly though.) If player A defects and player B defects their payoff would be (let's say 2); If play A defects and player B cooperates, A gets 6 and B gets 0. If they both cooperate, they both get 4. (The numbers are hypothetical though.) For a single round, the Nash equilibrium obviously leads for both parties to defect. An iterative scenario is different though; the payoff for cooperation would be 4/(1-r) where r is the discount factor (which shows the extent each game is discounted relative to the previous game that where 0 < r < 1. A higher r means that the payoffs from futures games). Lower discount rates (and higher discount factors) would mean a higher value for cooperation. Social mood should lead to higher discount rates and since the gains from trade are small, it is likely that protectionism would be supported. Some fodder for the Prechter bashers:

http://online.barrons.com/article/SB1036205791135578991.html?mod=this_weeks_barrons_features_hs

(From 2002 where he didn’t call a bottom then)

Well, I found this by searching for protectionism and social mood. I wonder if the politicians will support Obama’s tariff (I suppose they would,) but of course interest groups would support it.

If we assume protectionism does lead to long term economic growth, one can simulate the effects of protectionism with the iterative prisoner’s dilemma where the participants are individual countries (this does not simulate politics correctly though.)

If player A defects and player B defects their payoff would be (let’s say 2); If play A defects and player B cooperates, A gets 6 and B gets 0. If they both cooperate, they both get 4. (The numbers are hypothetical though.) For a single round, the Nash equilibrium obviously leads for both parties to defect. An iterative scenario is different though; the payoff for cooperation would be 4/(1-r) where r is the discount factor (which shows the extent each game is discounted relative to the previous game that where 0 < r < 1. A higher r means that the payoffs from futures games). Lower discount rates (and higher discount factors) would mean a higher value for cooperation.

Social mood should lead to higher discount rates and since the gains from trade are small, it is likely that protectionism would be supported.

]]> By: Mike http://sovereignspeculator.com/2009/09/12/shell-be-comin-round-the-corner-when-she-comes/#comment-6015 Mike Sun, 13 Sep 2009 23:58:42 +0000 http://sovereignspeculator.com/?p=2782#comment-6015 Ethanol is uneconomic, so it should fade away eventually. Who knows what the govt will waste on it in the meantime? This doesn't really matter for my grain idea. I do actually think grains could head a bunch lower, since they were in such a bubble recently, but they could have a nice bounce here if things set up right. Bear in mind, I haven't entered a trade yet, and if I do, I will likely only hold for days or a few weeks. Ethanol is uneconomic, so it should fade away eventually. Who knows what the govt will waste on it in the meantime?

This doesn’t really matter for my grain idea. I do actually think grains could head a bunch lower, since they were in such a bubble recently, but they could have a nice bounce here if things set up right. Bear in mind, I haven’t entered a trade yet, and if I do, I will likely only hold for days or a few weeks.

]]> By: GolfBoy http://sovereignspeculator.com/2009/09/12/shell-be-comin-round-the-corner-when-she-comes/#comment-6014 GolfBoy Sun, 13 Sep 2009 23:23:28 +0000 http://sovereignspeculator.com/?p=2782#comment-6014 Mike, any idea what might happen to the corn ethanol industry? There have been some major bankruptcies, and calls for bailouts. If this leads to repeal of the fuel mandate, then corn (and other grains) will fall further. Given the "green" hue of biofuels, my guess is that the current administration will prop it up as long as it can. But this course has political hazards. Mike, any idea what might happen to the corn ethanol industry? There have been some major bankruptcies, and calls for bailouts. If this leads to repeal of the fuel mandate, then corn (and other grains) will fall further. Given the “green” hue of biofuels, my guess is that the current administration will prop it up as long as it can. But this course has political hazards.

]]> By: Axclr8 http://sovereignspeculator.com/2009/09/12/shell-be-comin-round-the-corner-when-she-comes/#comment-5997 Axclr8 Sat, 12 Sep 2009 21:47:40 +0000 http://sovereignspeculator.com/?p=2782#comment-5997 Some good info from CASEY Research on the Banks: http://www.caseyresearch.com:80/displayCdd.php?id=222 Some good info from CASEY Research on the Banks:

http://www.caseyresearch.com:80/displayCdd.php?id=222

]]> By: PEJ http://sovereignspeculator.com/2009/09/12/shell-be-comin-round-the-corner-when-she-comes/#comment-5994 PEJ Sat, 12 Sep 2009 19:24:28 +0000 http://sovereignspeculator.com/?p=2782#comment-5994 That said, I just found this web site (litterally five minutes ago, so don't know how accurate it is): http://www.dailyindexsentiment.com/ But it seems like sentiment is not at extremes anymore... That said, I just found this web site (litterally five minutes ago, so don’t know how accurate it is):
http://www.dailyindexsentiment.com/
But it seems like sentiment is not at extremes anymore…

]]> By: Mike http://sovereignspeculator.com/2009/09/12/shell-be-comin-round-the-corner-when-she-comes/#comment-5993 Mike Sat, 12 Sep 2009 19:21:49 +0000 http://sovereignspeculator.com/?p=2782#comment-5993 EWI often cites DSI when it reaches extremes. EWI often cites DSI when it reaches extremes.

]]> By: PEJ http://sovereignspeculator.com/2009/09/12/shell-be-comin-round-the-corner-when-she-comes/#comment-5992 PEJ Sat, 12 Sep 2009 19:10:12 +0000 http://sovereignspeculator.com/?p=2782#comment-5992 ok thanks, that was my conclusion as well, reading from the bullish percent indices :-) ok thanks, that was my conclusion as well, reading from the bullish percent indices :-)

]]> By: Mike http://sovereignspeculator.com/2009/09/12/shell-be-comin-round-the-corner-when-she-comes/#comment-5991 Mike Sat, 12 Sep 2009 19:05:09 +0000 http://sovereignspeculator.com/?p=2782#comment-5991 Hey Pej I subscribe to DSI. Bullish % readings are very high, which is bearish. Hey Pej

I subscribe to DSI. Bullish % readings are very high, which is bearish.

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