Comments on: We’re probably at another top; the question is what kind

By: PEJ

PEJ — Wed, 21 Oct 2009 20:39:01 +0000

Thanks for the advice Mike-the-sage

Also, it seems like even Bernanke the Cheerleader is getting skeptical about his own green shoots… wait&pray

By: Mike

Mike — Wed, 21 Oct 2009 17:14:16 +0000

Pej, the point is that the Russell has stopped rising for now, and has made no headway since September, unlike the Dow, NDX and SPX. If RUT does start up again, I’d get out of the way.

Before things can fall, their uptrends have to be broken. You usually get 1-2 weeks of sideways action on high sentiment readings (CPC, VIX, DSI) before stocks fall, so if you short every new high as soon as it is printed you assume a large risk of the trend continuing with no end in sight, when you really don’t have to. If you wait for a few days of sideways action, you then have a clear stop as well as a greater chance at getting the timing right.

We’re now into our 6th day of sideways action in the Russell, with DSI in the 87-90% range.

By: Pej

Pej — Wed, 21 Oct 2009 17:03:21 +0000

Yes, you’re right on the russell. I’m short as well and have been adding to my s&p 500 shorts in the past couple of weeks.
Russell soon, if it keeps on rising

By: Pej

Pej — Wed, 21 Oct 2009 17:02:16 +0000

Ahaha, love your analysis of Germany. But frugality and work ethics are important things that I do not find in the UK.
And from what I have seen, people have been way better off in Germany than probably anywhere else in the past 10 years: mild deflation, no house bubble, good quality of life… sometimes I’m telling myself that I should move there…

By: Mike

Mike — Wed, 21 Oct 2009 16:01:04 +0000

Pej, the Russell hasn’t done anything today — it hasn’t topped yesterday’s level, and is basically where it was a month ago.

It may also be painting a down channel since last week. I added to my TF short at 621.40 today.

By: Mike

Mike — Wed, 21 Oct 2009 15:58:49 +0000

That was interesting about Germany capping deficits. That’s about the only thing that government gets right these days. The country has been zombie for 90 years now, ever since the Great War. The only reasons they have done comparatively well under socialism are their inherent frugality and work ethic, and the US export market.

By: Axclr8

Axclr8 — Wed, 21 Oct 2009 15:50:38 +0000

Still, I really think that the markets can go up through mid Dec for end of year Fund Manager performance … nothing stopping the train untill the bad news starts to come out on Q4 ….

By: Pej

Pej — Wed, 21 Oct 2009 13:56:43 +0000

And so much for the Russell, it retraced all the way up.

By: Pej

Pej — Wed, 21 Oct 2009 12:49:03 +0000

I’m anticipating the end of the month because I’m curious to see what kind of PER we’ll get on the indices.
With the profits falling so much and market players ignoring any negative information, it’s going to be juicy.
There’s also such a massive misinformation with all the talking heads talking about operating profits and ignoring the actual net profits (sometimes losses!)…

By: Axclr8

Axclr8 — Wed, 21 Oct 2009 04:25:50 +0000

So it starts, the beginning of a downturn in Social Mood:

——————————————————————————

Here it starts: http://www.showdowninchicago.org/index.html

The same financial institutions that caused the economic crisis and took billions in taxpayer bailouts are back to earning incredible profits. Meanwhile, Americans face shrinking pensions, rising foreclosures and unemployment, state budget cuts, predatory lending, outrageous overdraft fees, and sky-high credit card interest rates.

The American people want oversight, accountability and common-sense financial reform NOW. This is the classic David vs. Goliath fight, with Wall Street spending millions and millions on lobbying to defeat reforms that would protect the American people and our economy.

——————————————————————————

People are getting it …. cheap financing is going to dissapear .. and the general standard of living is going to go down …

On another note, I am findiing that I am getting more e-mails for headhunters …. tech hiring is coming back but people are being more picky and the wages of a typical Sales Engineer is 120K base + 60K at plan … total 180K …. this is about 40K less than in 2006 … some in tech who were laid off that used to make 150K are now taking jobs for 90K … so, for sure, wage deflation is occuring …

So once again, the rich survive and prosper and those who have to bust their balls to make a living have to start all over again … don’t you love America?