Some crude charting

Here’s a 1-month view of the Nymex December light sweet crude contact:

Source: Interactive Brokers

Watch for a break of that trendline. With bullishness running at 95% (and 97% on gasoline and heating oil), this rally must be getting long in the tooth. Also note that the rally has stalled against a longer-term channel trendline (see 1-year chart below). This week’s highs could make for a nice stop for a short position.

Source: Interactive Brokers

Don’t underestimate crude’s ability to levitate even if stocks begin to fall. This is just what happened in 2008 of course. Oil and other commodities charged ahead even as demand fell apart and deflation (a contraction of money + credit) took hold.

Also watch copper, which has been tracking oil pretty closely lately. Bullish readings aren’t as high here, so it may have even further to run:

Source: Interactive Brokers

The target here would be about $3.35-3.40 if copper hits the upper trendline. Given modest bullishness readings, there are enough traders to convert to the bull side for this to happen. Of course, a strong turn down in equities and move up in the dollar, should they come to pass, would be a headwind for all commodities.

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