Comments on: Distribution time http://sovereignspeculator.com/2009/11/12/distribution-time/ Thoughts on the markets and the decline of the west Mon, 20 Dec 2010 16:03:22 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.6 By: Седдор http://sovereignspeculator.com/2009/11/12/distribution-time/#comment-7166 Седдор Sun, 29 Nov 2009 14:20:40 +0000 http://sovereignspeculator.com/?p=2942#comment-7166 helpful article! helpful article!

]]> By: hcrosby http://sovereignspeculator.com/2009/11/12/distribution-time/#comment-7009 hcrosby Mon, 23 Nov 2009 15:19:04 +0000 http://sovereignspeculator.com/?p=2942#comment-7009 I just finished reading Richard Russell's latest letter last night. In my mind, Russell, at age 85 and going strong, is the single viewpoint I respect the most. His latest quote: "Gold is the only bull market I believe in." He goes on to make a very compelling case for a continuing rise in gold right in the midst of worldwide DEFLATION, which he also believes in. I just finished reading Richard Russell’s latest letter last night. In my mind, Russell, at age 85 and going strong, is the single viewpoint I respect the most.

His latest quote: “Gold is the only bull market I believe in.” He goes on to make a very compelling case for a continuing rise in gold right in the midst of worldwide DEFLATION, which he also believes in.

]]> By: Mike http://sovereignspeculator.com/2009/11/12/distribution-time/#comment-6978 Mike Sat, 21 Nov 2009 03:46:18 +0000 http://sovereignspeculator.com/?p=2942#comment-6978 Thanks, Leonard. I don't know if I'll write for them or not. I'm more likely to just submit some stuff to Tim Knight, since he's started publishing others on slopeofhope. Zerohedge has gotten a bit diluted lately as well, but it's still not bad. Thanks, Leonard. I don’t know if I’ll write for them or not. I’m more likely to just submit some stuff to Tim Knight, since he’s started publishing others on slopeofhope. Zerohedge has gotten a bit diluted lately as well, but it’s still not bad.

]]> By: Leonard http://sovereignspeculator.com/2009/11/12/distribution-time/#comment-6976 Leonard Sat, 21 Nov 2009 01:42:58 +0000 http://sovereignspeculator.com/?p=2942#comment-6976 Seeking Alpha was better when it was less cluttered. Now, conflicting advice and thin commentary make cutting through the crap more difficult. This blog is certainly one case where "less is more." Seeking Alpha was better when it was less cluttered. Now, conflicting advice and thin commentary make cutting through the crap more difficult. This blog is certainly one case where “less is more.”

]]> By: Seeking Alpha http://sovereignspeculator.com/2009/11/12/distribution-time/#comment-6927 Seeking Alpha Tue, 17 Nov 2009 08:05:55 +0000 http://sovereignspeculator.com/?p=2942#comment-6927 About Us Seeking Alpha (www.seekingalpha.com) is the premier financial website for actionable stock market opinion and analysis. Handpicked from the world's top blogs, money managers, financial experts and investment newsletters, Seeking Alpha publishes more than 250 articles daily. Seeking Alpha gives a voice to over 2500 contributors, providing access to the nation's most savvy and inquisitive investors. The award-winning site is the only free, online source for over 3,000 companies' quarterly earnings call transcripts including all of the Russell 3000 Index. Seeking Alpha has 40 million page views each month and combined with their distribution partners (Yahoo Finance, Google Finance, Reuters, Bnet, Etrade and others) has a total reach of 50 million unique monthly readers. Seeking Alpha was named the Most Informative Website by Kiplinger's Magazine and received Forbes Magazine's 'Best of the Web' Award. About Us
Seeking Alpha (www.seekingalpha.com) is the premier financial website for actionable stock market opinion and analysis. Handpicked from the world’s top blogs, money managers, financial experts and investment newsletters, Seeking Alpha publishes more than 250 articles daily. Seeking Alpha gives a voice to over 2500 contributors, providing access to the nation’s most savvy and inquisitive investors. The award-winning site is the only free, online source for over 3,000 companies’ quarterly earnings call transcripts including all of the Russell 3000 Index. Seeking Alpha has 40 million page views each month and combined with their distribution partners (Yahoo Finance, Google Finance, Reuters, Bnet, Etrade and others) has a total reach of 50 million unique monthly readers. Seeking Alpha was named the Most Informative Website by Kiplinger’s Magazine and received Forbes Magazine’s ‘Best of the Web’ Award.

]]> By: Seeking Alpha http://sovereignspeculator.com/2009/11/12/distribution-time/#comment-6926 Seeking Alpha Tue, 17 Nov 2009 08:05:22 +0000 http://sovereignspeculator.com/?p=2942#comment-6926 We at Seeking Alpha think your blog is great and would love to have you join our team. Please contact me at contributors@seekingalpha.com. Thanks, Becci We at Seeking Alpha think your blog is great and would love to have you join our team. Please contact me at contributors@seekingalpha.com.

Thanks,
Becci

]]> By: Aki_Izayoi http://sovereignspeculator.com/2009/11/12/distribution-time/#comment-6922 Aki_Izayoi Tue, 17 Nov 2009 03:55:15 +0000 http://sovereignspeculator.com/?p=2942#comment-6922 Stocks seemed to be pricey (relative to the past) right now based on the S&P website: http://www2.standardandpoors.com/spf/xls/index/SP500EPSEST.XLS 3rd Quarter Top Down as reported earnings is at $14.91 and the S&P is at 1100. 1100/(15*4)= 18.3. The highest reported quarter for top down earnings was 2nd quarter of 2007 with 21.88. 1550/(22*4) = 17.6 If we use the earnings 14.91 and price 1109, the market has the same earnings, price, and valuation similar to 2004. Of course, this does not appeal to any value investor, but from a superficial analysis, one could say that the market is not overvalued. However, it seems like that market prices have forgotten what happened in 2008. Of course, sentiment is important as it determines short and medium term market movements. Since the long-term is a concatenated string of short-terms, using sentiment analysis can lead to superior long term results. But I want to know the allocation to cash in investor portfolios. I think Ritzholt posted a Barron's fund manager survey that shows their sentiments regarding cash. Stocks seemed to be pricey (relative to the past) right now based on the S&P website:

http://www2.standardandpoors.com/spf/xls/index/SP500EPSEST.XLS

3rd Quarter Top Down as reported earnings is at $14.91 and the S&P is at 1100.

1100/(15*4)= 18.3.

The highest reported quarter for top down earnings was 2nd quarter of 2007 with 21.88.

1550/(22*4) = 17.6

If we use the earnings 14.91 and price 1109, the market has the same earnings, price, and valuation similar to 2004. Of course, this does not appeal to any value investor, but from a superficial analysis, one could say that the market is not overvalued. However, it seems like that market prices have forgotten what happened in 2008.

Of course, sentiment is important as it determines short and medium term market movements. Since the long-term is a concatenated string of short-terms, using sentiment analysis can lead to superior long term results. But I want to know the allocation to cash in investor portfolios. I think Ritzholt posted a Barron’s fund manager survey that shows their sentiments regarding cash.

]]> By: GolfBoy http://sovereignspeculator.com/2009/11/12/distribution-time/#comment-6917 GolfBoy Mon, 16 Nov 2009 15:47:48 +0000 http://sovereignspeculator.com/?p=2942#comment-6917 According to the S&P website, the as-reported P/E ratio of the S&P 500 is a mind-boggling 137.98, about double what it was before the dotcom bust. Be that as it may, sure, stocks could continue to rise. But Mr. Gravity always wins in the end. According to the S&P website, the as-reported P/E ratio of the S&P 500 is a mind-boggling 137.98, about double what it was before the dotcom bust. Be that as it may, sure, stocks could continue to rise. But Mr. Gravity always wins in the end.

]]> By: Aki_Izayoi http://sovereignspeculator.com/2009/11/12/distribution-time/#comment-6913 Aki_Izayoi Mon, 16 Nov 2009 07:00:03 +0000 http://sovereignspeculator.com/?p=2942#comment-6913 I do not think the rally will end yet... http://seekingalpha.com/article/173361-global-markets-in-review-stocks-still-in-rally-mode-for-now People are still bearish on US equities. Stocks do not crash when people are defensive. I also read in the <i>Wall Street Journal</i> that companies have a relatively high cash to asset ratios. I suppose one reason to be bearish on stocks is if investor's portfolios changed where they do not possess enough cash. Has the "dip-buying," commodity and foreign asset buying resulted in investors having less cash in their portfolios? Maybe long US equities as a hedge for long dollar positions. I also remember Ned Davis saying that stocks could reach a P/E of 20 before peaking and we are about at 18. I do not think the rally will end yet…

http://seekingalpha.com/article/173361-global-markets-in-review-stocks-still-in-rally-mode-for-now

People are still bearish on US equities. Stocks do not crash when people are defensive. I also read in the Wall Street Journal that companies have a relatively high cash to asset ratios. I suppose one reason to be bearish on stocks is if investor’s portfolios changed where they do not possess enough cash. Has the “dip-buying,” commodity and foreign asset buying resulted in investors having less cash in their portfolios?

Maybe long US equities as a hedge for long dollar positions. I also remember Ned Davis saying that stocks could reach a P/E of 20 before peaking and we are about at 18.

]]> By: Axclr8 http://sovereignspeculator.com/2009/11/12/distribution-time/#comment-6904 Axclr8 Sun, 15 Nov 2009 15:36:58 +0000 http://sovereignspeculator.com/?p=2942#comment-6904 Speculators covering their short USD postions .... http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/article/cot/2009-11-06-2142-USD_Short_Covering_is_Dollar.html We might just see a selloff in Dec .... Marry Xmas! Speculators covering their short USD postions ….

http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/article/cot/2009-11-06-2142-USD_Short_Covering_is_Dollar.html

We might just see a selloff in Dec …. Marry Xmas!

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