Comments on: Video presentation: Chanos on China’s state-sponsored bubble http://sovereignspeculator.com/2010/02/23/video-presentation-chanos-on-chinas-state-sponsored-bubble/ Thoughts on the markets and the decline of the west Wed, 28 Sep 2011 03:00:09 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.6 By: Mike http://sovereignspeculator.com/2010/02/23/video-presentation-chanos-on-chinas-state-sponsored-bubble/#comment-8569 Mike Tue, 23 Feb 2010 21:30:44 +0000 http://sovereignspeculator.com/?p=3846#comment-8569 China's crash is going to be monstrous - value in their stocks and real estate seems to be 90% under today's prices. Nothing is off the table -- I'm not going to be the guy who says oil won't fall to $10, or copper to $0.25. That said, war is pretty bullish for commodities, so if the evil doers in DC decide to start a really big one in a few years, these prices would recover, likely as the currency finally fails. China’s crash is going to be monstrous - value in their stocks and real estate seems to be 90% under today’s prices. Nothing is off the table — I’m not going to be the guy who says oil won’t fall to $10, or copper to $0.25.

That said, war is pretty bullish for commodities, so if the evil doers in DC decide to start a really big one in a few years, these prices would recover, likely as the currency finally fails.

]]> By: rogerjarema http://sovereignspeculator.com/2010/02/23/video-presentation-chanos-on-chinas-state-sponsored-bubble/#comment-8568 rogerjarema Tue, 23 Feb 2010 20:51:33 +0000 http://sovereignspeculator.com/?p=3846#comment-8568 A few days ago FCX touched its 50 DMA & now it's down quite quickly. Apparently AUD is also rejected by its 50 DMA. John Murphy also noted that this very 50 DMA rejected many other stocks' bounces. Recently, oil, emerging markets (EEM), china (FXI), & others found support on its 200 DMA. If this downdraft continues, it could be the scenario where the whole world is breaking the most significant resistance to the downside. How bad do you think China will crash, Mike? Oil $20 on the table? I just noticed after Japanese crash, commodities also tanked during 1990s. In 1998 it bottomed when oil reached $10. China sort of replaces Japan's role in commodity consumption, doesn't it? A few days ago FCX touched its 50 DMA & now it’s down quite quickly. Apparently AUD is also rejected by its 50 DMA. John Murphy also noted that this very 50 DMA rejected many other stocks’ bounces.

Recently, oil, emerging markets (EEM), china (FXI), & others found support on its 200 DMA. If this downdraft continues, it could be the scenario where the whole world is breaking the most significant resistance to the downside.

How bad do you think China will crash, Mike? Oil $20 on the table? I just noticed after Japanese crash, commodities also tanked during 1990s. In 1998 it bottomed when oil reached $10. China sort of replaces Japan’s role in commodity consumption, doesn’t it?

]]> By: Mike http://sovereignspeculator.com/2010/02/23/video-presentation-chanos-on-chinas-state-sponsored-bubble/#comment-8567 Mike Tue, 23 Feb 2010 19:34:53 +0000 http://sovereignspeculator.com/?p=3846#comment-8567 I shorted it a day or two ago at 3.28, and just tightened up the stop a lot in case this is a choppy top and not a narrow peak. I shorted it a day or two ago at 3.28, and just tightened up the stop a lot in case this is a choppy top and not a narrow peak.

]]> By: Graphite http://sovereignspeculator.com/2010/02/23/video-presentation-chanos-on-chinas-state-sponsored-bubble/#comment-8565 Graphite Tue, 23 Feb 2010 17:26:27 +0000 http://sovereignspeculator.com/?p=3846#comment-8565 Copper has just broken the trendline which defined its rally from the oversold lows. If it's moving into a third wave down it could be a great short here. Lately I've been bending one of my own trading rules and adding some exposure in front-month OTM puts, given the resemblance of the recent market to the peak in 1987. Copper has just broken the trendline which defined its rally from the oversold lows. If it’s moving into a third wave down it could be a great short here.

Lately I’ve been bending one of my own trading rules and adding some exposure in front-month OTM puts, given the resemblance of the recent market to the peak in 1987.

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