Don’t sell short the Yen just yet. It is wedging up to the highs and still seems to find a bid when stocks fall. I noticed this large wedge on the USD.JPY 5-year:
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A breakout of that wedge will be bearish for Yen, and a nice spot to think about shorting. For now, I’m letting it run, since the Yen is still the only thing stronger than the dollar in deflation. Note, however, that each subsequent move down in dollar/yen is shallower and choppier than the last, hinting at a pending reversal.
Here’s another way to look at it. There’s still an unbroken longstanding support line in Yen/Dollar, but the rise in 2009 was choppier and at a shallower angle than previous rallies. You can also see in weekly RSI that the trend is tiring: