Comments on: Urge to speculate not as rampant as it seems http://sovereignspeculator.com/2010/03/19/urge-to-speculate-not-as-rampant-as-it-seems/ Thoughts on the markets and the decline of the west Mon, 28 Nov 2011 13:53:48 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.6 By: h crosby http://sovereignspeculator.com/2010/03/19/urge-to-speculate-not-as-rampant-as-it-seems/#comment-8874 h crosby Mon, 22 Mar 2010 09:54:34 +0000 http://sovereignspeculator.com/?p=4350#comment-8874 Since I started reading this blog, some nine minutes ago, the US national debt has increased by nearly $27 million. How much longer until the US is where Greece is now? Since I started reading this blog, some nine minutes ago, the US national debt has increased by nearly $27 million.

How much longer until the US is where Greece is now?

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By: Mike http://sovereignspeculator.com/2010/03/19/urge-to-speculate-not-as-rampant-as-it-seems/#comment-8863 Mike Sun, 21 Mar 2010 18:34:28 +0000 http://sovereignspeculator.com/?p=4350#comment-8863 That's interesting. How smart of them. But if they are net short Greek debt with CDS, that would mean they would want default. Anyway, my guess is still that Greece will get emergency guarantees or loans that will delay default. But a year from now when Italy, Spain, Portugal and Ireland are in the same position, it will be very difficult to bail everyone out, so real defaults will happen in the end. That’s interesting. How smart of them. But if they are net short Greek debt with CDS, that would mean they would want default.

Anyway, my guess is still that Greece will get emergency guarantees or loans that will delay default. But a year from now when Italy, Spain, Portugal and Ireland are in the same position, it will be very difficult to bail everyone out, so real defaults will happen in the end.

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By: Alex G. http://sovereignspeculator.com/2010/03/19/urge-to-speculate-not-as-rampant-as-it-seems/#comment-8862 Alex G. Sun, 21 Mar 2010 18:28:56 +0000 http://sovereignspeculator.com/?p=4350#comment-8862 I think on more reason Greece will not default now, is that Greek banks must have bought CDS for the Greek debt. For example a Greek Bank, TT, had bought 1 m euros Greek CDS last August. I think on more reason Greece will not default now, is that Greek banks must have bought CDS for the Greek debt.
For example a Greek Bank, TT, had bought 1 m euros Greek CDS last August.

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By: Alex G. http://sovereignspeculator.com/2010/03/19/urge-to-speculate-not-as-rampant-as-it-seems/#comment-8851 Alex G. Sat, 20 Mar 2010 21:58:03 +0000 http://sovereignspeculator.com/?p=4350#comment-8851 Mike thanks your reply, i really appreciate your advice. Alex Mike
thanks your reply, i really appreciate your advice.
Alex

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By: Jim http://sovereignspeculator.com/2010/03/19/urge-to-speculate-not-as-rampant-as-it-seems/#comment-8848 Jim Sat, 20 Mar 2010 17:02:35 +0000 http://sovereignspeculator.com/?p=4350#comment-8848 Mike--I agree with you-not just Greece though--all of us-- Thanks for all the informative posts-you provide- Mike–I agree with you-not just Greece though–all of us–

Thanks for all the informative posts-you provide-

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By: Mike http://sovereignspeculator.com/2010/03/19/urge-to-speculate-not-as-rampant-as-it-seems/#comment-8835 Mike Fri, 19 Mar 2010 20:21:34 +0000 http://sovereignspeculator.com/?p=4350#comment-8835 Hi Alex, I always appreciate your notes from Greece. The country will have to default, one way or another, simply because the debt is too large to be paid back. This can be delayed through emergency loans, but then those are simply added to the debt balance. The best thing would be to default right away and get it over with. The government would then not be able to borrow as much, and its interest would be higher, so it would be forced to fire lots of useless workers and lower the salaries of the rest. The taxpayers would be better off because they would not have to pay higher rates to pay back the debt. Default does not autmatically mean that Greece stops using the Euro. Why would it? Greece can choose to use any currency it wants: euros, dollars, drachmae, gold staters, whatever. Panama uses US dollars, Zimbabwe uses all kinds of currency, and FSU countries often use euros and dollars. Anyway, I sure hope you default swiftly, but it doesn't look like your politicians are going to do that. They are trying to get more loans and squeeze people dry, since the current status keeps them in power. Best of luck, Mike Hi Alex,

I always appreciate your notes from Greece.

The country will have to default, one way or another, simply because the debt is too large to be paid back. This can be delayed through emergency loans, but then those are simply added to the debt balance.

The best thing would be to default right away and get it over with. The government would then not be able to borrow as much, and its interest would be higher, so it would be forced to fire lots of useless workers and lower the salaries of the rest.

The taxpayers would be better off because they would not have to pay higher rates to pay back the debt.

Default does not autmatically mean that Greece stops using the Euro. Why would it? Greece can choose to use any currency it wants: euros, dollars, drachmae, gold staters, whatever. Panama uses US dollars, Zimbabwe uses all kinds of currency, and FSU countries often use euros and dollars.

Anyway, I sure hope you default swiftly, but it doesn’t look like your politicians are going to do that. They are trying to get more loans and squeeze people dry, since the current status keeps them in power.

Best of luck,

Mike

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By: Alex G. http://sovereignspeculator.com/2010/03/19/urge-to-speculate-not-as-rampant-as-it-seems/#comment-8834 Alex G. Fri, 19 Mar 2010 20:10:27 +0000 http://sovereignspeculator.com/?p=4350#comment-8834 Hi Mike we get confused by news here in Greece with different decisions every day. It is an unprecedented situation here, all people wonder what's going to happen. Couple of months ago the petrol price was 1 euro per litter now it is 1.50 euros per litter. What do you think, are we going to default and get back to Drachma? Cheers Alex from Greece Hi Mike
we get confused by news here in Greece with different decisions every day. It is an unprecedented situation here, all people wonder what’s going to happen. Couple of months ago the petrol price was 1 euro per litter now it is 1.50 euros per litter.
What do you think, are we going to default and get back to Drachma?
Cheers
Alex from Greece

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