Comments on: ES update (edited for clarity): stock futures still strong, but watch RSI for signs of weakness http://sovereignspeculator.com/2010/05/30/es-update-weakening-rallies-may-give-away-impending-decline/ Thoughts on the markets and the decline of the west Tue, 15 Nov 2011 17:49:26 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.6 By: rogerjarema http://sovereignspeculator.com/2010/05/30/es-update-weakening-rallies-may-give-away-impending-decline/#comment-9910 rogerjarema Mon, 31 May 2010 09:48:14 +0000 http://sovereignspeculator.com/?p=4888#comment-9910 Mike, there are several possible counts for this move. Indeed, most of the EW community is looking for a 3rd of 3rd down. Daneric presented very strong arguments for this in his Weekend Review. He mainly presented his arguments through up vol ratio, advancers decliners, & the classic stuff. Of course always has the bearish bias. However, Kenny also presented a strong case against this and favors races to at least 1130s if not outright new highs. He looks at it from the CPC & CPCE viewpoints. Due to very strong actions in the CPC & CPCE, he favors 1040 to be a more meaningful bottom rather than wave 1 of 3 (in which case now is wave 2 of 3). There is the inverse H&S formation forming around the 1040 bottom. Full IHS target is for 1140s S&P500, 0.618 target is around 1120s. 1120s is a confluence of other Fibs & resistances too, e.g. 20 DMA @ 1125 now. There have been many 1-2, 1-2 setups for huge down since the March 2009 rally, but nearly all of them failed. But the very few which succeeded were not that rewarding either. So... will it it different this time? How do you weigh these arguments? Meanwhile, time for some moronic post of the day - no V-shape recovery, but "checkmark", new highs by 2012: http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/it%27s-not-a-%27v%27-it%27s-even-better-altucher-says-look-for-new-highs-by-2012-496236.html?tickers=^dji,^gspc,EMC,ibm,intc,hot,hum Mike, there are several possible counts for this move. Indeed, most of the EW community is looking for a 3rd of 3rd down. Daneric presented very strong arguments for this in his Weekend Review. He mainly presented his arguments through up vol ratio, advancers decliners, & the classic stuff. Of course always has the bearish bias.

However, Kenny also presented a strong case against this and favors races to at least 1130s if not outright new highs. He looks at it from the CPC & CPCE viewpoints. Due to very strong actions in the CPC & CPCE, he favors 1040 to be a more meaningful bottom rather than wave 1 of 3 (in which case now is wave 2 of 3).

There is the inverse H&S formation forming around the 1040 bottom. Full IHS target is for 1140s S&P500, 0.618 target is around 1120s. 1120s is a confluence of other Fibs & resistances too, e.g. 20 DMA @ 1125 now.

There have been many 1-2, 1-2 setups for huge down since the March 2009 rally, but nearly all of them failed. But the very few which succeeded were not that rewarding either. So… will it it different this time? How do you weigh these arguments?

Meanwhile, time for some moronic post of the day - no V-shape recovery, but “checkmark”, new highs by 2012:
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/it%27s-not-a-%27v%27-it%27s-even-better-altucher-says-look-for-new-highs-by-2012-496236.html?tickers=^dji,^gspc,EMC,ibm,intc,hot,hum

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