Comments on: A look at the real value of gold on an historical basis. http://sovereignspeculator.com/2011/08/19/a-look-at-the-real-value-of-gold-on-an-historical-basis/ Thoughts on the markets and economics from a lone, wandering participant. Wed, 09 Jan 2013 20:56:42 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.com/ By: GolfBoy http://sovereignspeculator.com/2011/08/19/a-look-at-the-real-value-of-gold-on-an-historical-basis/#comment-1779 Sun, 06 Nov 2011 14:00:12 +0000 http://sovereignspeculator.com/?p=5256#comment-1779 Never mind – found it here:

http://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/the_gold_wheat_ratio/

I wanted to look at wheat, since demand is less elastic (isn’t it?), and its utility per bushel is more or less unchanged with time. Looks like gold is high relative to wheat, as well.

]]> By: GolfBoy http://sovereignspeculator.com/2011/08/19/a-look-at-the-real-value-of-gold-on-an-historical-basis/#comment-1778 Sun, 06 Nov 2011 13:54:06 +0000 http://sovereignspeculator.com/?p=5256#comment-1778 Please, anyone – what is the historical Gold/Wheat ratio?

]]> By: bobby http://sovereignspeculator.com/2011/08/19/a-look-at-the-real-value-of-gold-on-an-historical-basis/#comment-1777 Sat, 03 Sep 2011 02:03:31 +0000 http://sovereignspeculator.com/?p=5256#comment-1777 Hi Mike,

I was wondering what you think of the coming Fed QE and White House job policy. From what little I have read, it appears that this Operational Twist will not be beneficial. Also I was curious what your thoughts are of real estate thank so much.
Bobby

]]> By: Bjorn http://sovereignspeculator.com/2011/08/19/a-look-at-the-real-value-of-gold-on-an-historical-basis/#comment-1776 Fri, 02 Sep 2011 19:37:14 +0000 http://sovereignspeculator.com/?p=5256#comment-1776 Thanks Mike, that’s very helpful

]]> By: Mike http://sovereignspeculator.com/2011/08/19/a-look-at-the-real-value-of-gold-on-an-historical-basis/#comment-1775 Fri, 02 Sep 2011 19:19:08 +0000 http://sovereignspeculator.com/?p=5256#comment-1775 BTW, if you are looking for high put prices, those are generally found after a succession of big down days. The same puts will always be cheaper after the market digests the move.

]]> By: Mike http://sovereignspeculator.com/2011/08/19/a-look-at-the-real-value-of-gold-on-an-historical-basis/#comment-1774 Fri, 02 Sep 2011 19:15:25 +0000 http://sovereignspeculator.com/?p=5256#comment-1774 Hi Bjorn,

Take another look. The bids have changed – it’s just that volume is low on this Friday before Labor Day, so not a lot of options have traded at the new prices. Also, the VIX hasn’t moved much – traders just aren’t panicking. No new lows here – just a down move in what’s been a sideways market for the last two weeks.

-Mike

]]> By: Bjorn http://sovereignspeculator.com/2011/08/19/a-look-at-the-real-value-of-gold-on-an-historical-basis/#comment-1773 Fri, 02 Sep 2011 18:56:25 +0000 http://sovereignspeculator.com/?p=5256#comment-1773 Hi Mike,

I was wondering if you might be willing to shed some light on this.

I was watching SPY puts today, and noticing that some were not moving despite a 31 point drop (so far) in the S&P.

Some Dec 2012, Jun 2012, and Dec 2013 SPY puts, that were recently quite sensitive to movements in the S&P showed no change at all.

How can volume on the same puts that were recently sensitive have a zero volume on a day like today when the market is showing a significant drop?

]]> By: Mike http://sovereignspeculator.com/2011/08/19/a-look-at-the-real-value-of-gold-on-an-historical-basis/#comment-1772 Thu, 25 Aug 2011 18:21:15 +0000 http://sovereignspeculator.com/?p=5256#comment-1772 Well, we are like Greece in that default is inevitable, but the timing makes all the difference. We can make our debt payments for many more years, whereas the Greeks are already unable and will have to outright default within a year or two.

I agree that we’re probably in bear market #3 since the big top in 2000. The whole secular bear should drag on for 5 years or longer, until we finally get back to real value. The dollar will be fine for the time being – it’s gold I’m worried about.

]]> By: Bjorn http://sovereignspeculator.com/2011/08/19/a-look-at-the-real-value-of-gold-on-an-historical-basis/#comment-1771 Thu, 25 Aug 2011 18:02:27 +0000 http://sovereignspeculator.com/?p=5256#comment-1771 It seems that we have settled into wave Primary 3 down, this time for real. The world is continuing to trust US treasuries, as you noted here and previously, and the dollar’s impending rise should, I would think, temper some of the comparisons of this country with Greece. It’s strange though, because we are like Greece, but for the time being it seems that we will look like a safe haven even as the broader US economy continues to decline in terms of employment, real estate, etc.

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