Quick update: topping pattern still in place

Stagnant prices? Check.
High sentiment? Check.
Declining RSI? Check.

Sell that market!

SPX 1 year

vix 1 year


New highs can’t be ruled out, but starting from conditions like this, they will be small in relation to the likely decline.

Throw in a developing recession and high Shiller PE ratio, and you’ve got the strong possibility of a major top.

PS – If you’re in the US, and you are the voting type (I am not), please consider the Libertarian Party and Gary Johnson.

Technical update: overbought, overbullish, declining RSI

We finally have the classic syndrome that indicates an intermediate-term top. Upward momentum has stalled, as sentiment has remained elevated for several weeks. The combination of sideways prices on high bullish readings becomes very bearish when it has been sustained for a month or longer.

Here is the RSI and price picture (note declining trend in the momemtum indicator RSI since late August, and its resemblance to the topping pattern last spring):


Charts from Yahoo

A quick glance at sentiment shows sustained optimism:
Source: http://www.naaim.org/naaimadsenttrend.aspx

Looking at the headlines, it is nice to see good news that results in a bump with no follow-through. We saw that in mid-September with QE Infinity, and last Friday with the jobs report. Rallies end on good news and declines end on bad news.

It would not be unusual to see another test of the highs, and for prices to linger at these elevated levels for another month or so, but the odds of a sharp decline are now elevated, and any further gains should be quickly erased.