Here is a list of popular personages who predicted this credit implosion and depression while the bubble was still being blown:

Robert Prechter. In 2002, he published Conquer the Crash, How to survive and prosper in a deflationary depression. So far right on the money except gold hasn’t fallen hard (yet).

Jim Grant. Erudite writer of Grant’s [...]

Though this chart doesn’t show it, the TED spread has made a new all-time high, 412 basis points:

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Click image for sharper view. Source: Bloomberg
Bloomberg reports that interbank lending rates around the world in all different currencies are at or near their highs of the year. This fact, along with the lack of oomph in any [...]

Here are a couple of charts that illustrate the significance of what the Fed has undertaken lately. First, look at the change in its balance sheet this year from about $870 billion, almost all in Treasuries, to $1.5 trillion, with fewer Treasuries, more repos and swaps, and an alphabet soup of new credit facilities:

Source: Federal [...]

You can’t (shouldn’t) fight gravity.
The damage to the economy was done in the boom. The bust is simply the market’s way of taking account of what was wasted. This process cannot be stopped, but it can be twisted from something healthy into something perverse, and Bernanke and Paulson are wringing the guts out of what [...]

Ok, so the big banks are being taken care of. Whatever they need to stay afloat, Daddy Paulson and his team of merry “asset managers” will provide. But will Bernanke’s billions, hot off the presses, be enough to thaw the credit freeze? This speculator’s money says decidedly not.
Replenishing bank vaults is one thing. Lending is [...]

The credit system is not operating at all. LIBOR has a bid, but no offer. The TED spread is at a new record, over 3.82. Congress and Paulson are powerless to do anything about this. Equities, always slow to catch on, are still not reflecting the severity of the situation.
Here’s the TED spread from Bloomberg:

Here [...]

Here’s the Treasury Eurodollar spread again (Bloomberg):

And here is the VIX (Yahoo! Finance):

It is rare, to say the least, to see these warnings lights stay on for more than a day or two, and these levels are unprecidented in the crisis.
To crash or not to crash?
Short-term timing is the hardest part of trading. Sometimes you [...]

Bottom line: Bailouts will waste our savings and remaining credit, and exacerbate the flight of capital and talent from the US.
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I was extremely surprised on Monday when the House rejected the first version of the Crime of ‘08, but I remain certain that an essentially identical bill will become law. When it does, maybe as [...]

Consider that the market dropped about 2.5% at the open, before the vote was on the floor, and that Europe had been trading down 4% before Wall Street even had breakfast. Stocks around the world were having an awful day this morning, even though almost everyone assumed the bill was a done deal.
It is unfortunate [...]

Well, there you have it. Paulson got his 700 big ones (to start) but Congress is going to make him ask again for some of it (like they’ll say no). Executive compensation cuts? Well, deduction caps and no new golden parachutes for the biggest beggars. Equity? Well, warrants, and Paulson gets to say how many, [...]