Trends reverse asset class by asset class. Here’s where the reflation trade stands about two weeks past its possible peak:
Gold and silver: Nice, clear tops and solid sell-offs. I’m pretty confident about those tops holding, since sentiment readings got so high there. Decent profits are in hand, and I am out of this market as [...]

From this morning on Bloomberg. Prechter now has a perfect record since calling for a major crash at the 2007 top and then calling the interim bottom earlier this year. He was made for this environment. His 2002 book, Conquer the Crash, is a practically a blueprint for what is happening.
Takeaways:
Betty Liu actually extended [...]

To say that stocks are anything other than dangerously overpriced with a P/E of over 130 and a yield of 2.5% on unsustainable dividends is either farcical or fraudulent.
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For such a simple little metric, the P/E ratio is subjected to all kinds of perversions to deflate it to levels that can be passed off as [...]

I prefer to do the most basic charting imaginable. I just look at history and try to find times that resemble the present. In tonight’s browsing of the record of mankind’s opinion of its future, my eye zeroed in on September 2001 to March 2002. The dot marks the week of September 17, 2001:

This interim [...]

Since they both reflect prevailing social mood, the stock market and consumer confidence move together. Today’s CC figure (about as high as last summer), is another sign that the investing public’s opinion of our economic prospects is overly optimistic:

If this were a stock chart of a company with horrible fundamentals (a prospective short), I would [...]

I have no strong opinion on near term market direction. I was prepared for this little downward correction, as for the larger bounce off 666 on the S&P500, but am highly ambivalent about where we go from this juncture.
Has this been a four month flat correction?
A case can be made that the entirety of market [...]

Most non-traders probably missed it, but the S&P 500 futures contracts tanked right after the close yesterday and touched 681 for a moment. We are bouncing a tad right now (futures trade around the clock during the week), but this is just another head fake. Lower lows await this month. However, I have now closed [...]

Once again, fasten your seat belts. We still need a washout to set us up for a lasting thaw. Adam at goldversuspaper noticed the striking similarity between the pattern of the last few months with that of the 1937-1938 “second dip” crash in the Great Depression:

At first I did a double take and thought I [...]

Last fall, Dow Jones launched the Global Dow index, composed of 150 stocks from around the world. A quick glance at its 10-year chart shows that stock prices have only so far blown off the froth from 2006 and 2007:

Source: wsj.com
Stocks are driven by mood, and mood today seems to be highly coordinated around the [...]

Red sky at night, sailor’s delight
Red sky at morn, sailors be warned.
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Technical musings
In recent trading days we have seen various indicators reach levels that, had they occurred together during another set of social and economic conditions, would have warranted an aggressive bullish stance. As they have arisen during the greatest depression and stock market collapse [...]