Taleb thinks hyperinflation is a strong enough possibility to justify way OTM bets on gold (long) and bonds (short). The one bit I agree with is the long gold / short stocks play (though I think gold is likely to fall with stocks, just not as much), and I suspect that deflationist Hendry would concur.
Hendry [...]

A friend just sent me a link to this excerpt of Michael Lewis’s new book, The Big Short. It’s the chapter about  Michael Burry, a California recluse who emersed himself in mortgage bond prospectuses, figured out that it was an historic bubble, and then convinced Goldman and other TBTF banks to write his value fund [...]

A question of Keynes vs. Kondratieff
Until recently, the sovereign debt of nearly all governments would rally during panic episodes as stocks and commodities fell. This makes sense, as strong sovereign debt is cash for big boys, and investors are forced to reach further and further out for yield as short-rates are driven to zero or [...]

I don’t know exactly what to make of this pattern, but it is not unusual to see these two move together. As forms of cash, they each tend to do well when the deflation trade is on. In fact, other than short positions, they are the only things that beat the dollar when everything else [...]

Put this down in the list of no-fuss, no-brainer, long-term trades. Simply buy 10-year Treasury notes and short junk bonds. There is no purer deflation play than this. It doesn’t even matter if Treasury yields rise (unlikely anytime soon IMO), since you’re playing the spread and junk yields will always include Treasury yields plus a risk premium.

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What [...]

All government debt is a racket, and should be repudiated.
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Widely read investment advisor John Mauldin favors the continued enslavement of the Greek public to corrupt politicians, greedy unions, and German banks. He had this to say today in his email publication:
…if Greece defaults it does not necessarily mean they have to leave the EU, any more [...]

New lows for stocks overnight, and new highs for bonds (man, do I wish I hadn’t gone flat yesterday afternoon). By the way, that fractal played out, since the small decline into the close yesterday foretold a greater decline overnight.
S&P futures in white, 30-year treasury futures in blue here. You can see that they have [...]

Talk about a tight relationship! Look at T-bonds vs. stocks for the last two weeks. Bonds in blue, stocks in purple:

Source: Interactive Brokers

This is a quicky trade — I’m looking for a decline of a few percent at most. I’m still a bond bull for 2010. I use futures, but TLT charts the same:

Source: Prophet.net
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Bonds being overbought backs up stocks being oversold.

Mish has been swamped lately, posting what seems like at least two stories a day about the insolvency and incredible stupidity of state and local governments.
See these stories for examples:
School Crisis in Nevada: Governor Seeks to Cancel Collective Bargaining With Schools Because the State is Broke
Economically Illiterate Quote of the Day 2010-02-03: This Quote Concerns [...]