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A question of Keynes vs. Kondratieff
Until recently, the sovereign debt of nearly all governments would rally during panic episodes as stocks and commodities fell. This makes sense, as strong sovereign debt is cash for big boys, and investors are forced to reach further and further out for yield as short-rates are driven to zero or [...]

Mortgages are still cheap, if you can get them. The spread over 30-year T-bonds has fallen to record lows, at just 0.2%.

St. Louis Fed
This spread is unsustainable and will be corrected by falling bond yields (rising prices) and/or rising mortgage rates. It is possible that mortgage rates fall still lower, but the spread must widen [...]

According to Bloomberg, the big bears are circling China.
Marc Faber, publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom Report, says China is overdoing it. “It does not make sense for China to build more empty buildings and add to capacities in industries where you already have overcapacity,” Faber told Bloomberg Television on Feb. 11. “I think [...]

Look at the similarity between the March 2008 peak and immediate aftermath and what we’ve seen since the December high in gold:

Prophet.net
Sure, there could be a little more oomph here for a push like that close second peak in ‘08, but just because gold hasn’t dropped like a stone doesn’t mean the mania will go [...]

I glanced at the markets at 4:30 just in time to see every “risk” market spike down hard together. That kind of instant, coordinated movement only happens on announcements, usually something out of Washington. Turns out the Fed spooked traders with news of a 0.25% hike in the discount rate, the rate at which distressed [...]

5-year view of the ASX 200:

Source: Bloomberg
Australia has a huge property bubble that has yet to burst. The average home there, at AU$502,492, is priced at eight times average household income, compared to about three times income at the height of the US bubble (though higher in places like California and Florida). This is a country with [...]

Put this down in the list of no-fuss, no-brainer, long-term trades. Simply buy 10-year Treasury notes and short junk bonds. There is no purer deflation play than this. It doesn’t even matter if Treasury yields rise (unlikely anytime soon IMO), since you’re playing the spread and junk yields will always include Treasury yields plus a risk premium.

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What [...]

All government debt is a racket, and should be repudiated.
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Widely read investment advisor John Mauldin favors the continued enslavement of the Greek public to corrupt politicians, greedy unions, and German banks. He had this to say today in his email publication:
…if Greece defaults it does not necessarily mean they have to leave the EU, any more [...]

When the short-term gets hazy, remember the big picture.
The drop so far (about 6% in 12 days on a closing basis, 9% in 13 days intraday):

Source: Prophet.net
Here are the conditions I am watching: RSI on the daily scale is now oversold. However, DSI bullishness has dropped from near 90% to the 30s, which still leaves a [...]