Taleb thinks hyperinflation is a strong enough possibility to justify way OTM bets on gold (long) and bonds (short). The one bit I agree with is the long gold / short stocks play (though I think gold is likely to fall with stocks, just not as much), and I suspect that deflationist Hendry would concur.
Hendry [...]

Mortgages are still cheap, if you can get them. The spread over 30-year T-bonds has fallen to record lows, at just 0.2%.

St. Louis Fed
This spread is unsustainable and will be corrected by falling bond yields (rising prices) and/or rising mortgage rates. It is possible that mortgage rates fall still lower, but the spread must widen [...]

Here’s the daily continuation chart of commodity index futures since July. Note the new highs on weakening momentum:

Source: futures.tradingcharts.com
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The oil and base metals markets are similar. Here’s the base metal index, from kitcometals.com:

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And oil futures, from stockcharts.com (3-year chart):

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See also:
Copper looks set to fall hard (12/21/09)

The relative values of gold and silver are a measure of risk aversion, akin to the VIX. Silver is largely an industrial metal and reflects appetite for commodities in general, whereas gold is owned as hard cash for safety.
Witness the premium silver fetched in the commodities mania of 2007 to July 2008, and the soaring [...]

US equities, the VIX, oil and copper are bucking against price levels associated with multiple peaks and troughs over the last month. The levels are as follows:
July copper: resistance at $2.32 - 2.35
August oil: resistance at $70 - 71 (BTW, I have been stopped out here and am on the sidelines)
NASDAQ futures (NQ): resistance at [...]

Another short post here.
Within a week or two I expect a correction or change of trend regarding this “reflation” theme we are seeing. The bond panic is coinciding with toppy looking activity in oil, precious metals and grains. I’m buying puts on crude today with the July contract at 65.33.
The dollar is also a buy [...]

The Treasury double short fund TBT has had a great run since New Year’s, when the long bond yielded just 2.5%, the lowest level since the WW2 era. I suspect that a lot of readers were with me on my bond short back then, as most bearish-minded folk had been chomping at the bit to [...]

Mish has composed a detailed post on the many ways in which the vociferous Peter Schiff has been dead wrong on just about everything in this crash (the two actually had a little debate in December 2007). Mish’s post is essential reading for anyone who is considering following Schiff’s investment advice. In his own way, [...]

I first touched on this topic last week:
“So that’s what I’m working with. All three asset classes look overbought to me: bonds, gold and the Euro/CHF, and I suspect that their rallies are related and associated in traders’ minds with recent Fed and Treasury actions.”
Today the dollar is rallying strongly against other currencies and gold, [...]

Michael Rozeff crunches historical CPI and the gold price in this essay on Lewrockwell.com. Right off the bat, let’s clear the air with this statement, with which I am in complete agreement:
“If the economic world of the dollar is going to end [...]