Good interview on Bloomberg today – follow this link, since Bloomberg has disabled embedding.

Good interview on Bloomberg today – follow this link, since Bloomberg has disabled embedding.

Two good interviews here with these fund managers.
EDIT: The Bloomberg interview of Kyle Bass is no longer playing, and I can’t find it on youtube, so I’ll just post a couple of other links:
All I could find was this on his new fund:
http://dealbreaker.com/2011/04/want-to-invest-in-japan-kyle-bass-has-a-fund-for-that/
Here he is talking inflation last October:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bCYIBf4_GMw
FYI, I think talk of inflation is still premature, since there is still too much credit to be liquidated before currency creation overwealms credit destruction. Significant inflation is more likely to appear towards 2020 than 2012, and we could easily see another episode of deflation in the next year or two.
A fair degree of complacency has snuck back into markets over the last month. We don’t have a strong sell signal in stocks yet, but if April marked the high in US and European markets and economic indicators are turning down again, this could be a good spot to start building short positions again:
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Here’s the equity put:call vs the 20 day moving average, back to one standard deviation under its mean. Dipping lower would require the kind of extreme complacency that we’ve only seen twice in the last decade, so I wouldn’t count on it:
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The dollar has also corrected its overbought condition (and is actually very oversold), which is key for a resumption of the deflation trade:
From Bloomberg:
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Einhorn has shorted S&P and Moodies. Some take-aways:
Rating agencies are a “public bad,” not a public good.
We need a systemic change to reject the idea of centralized official ratings.
The market would adjust if we didn’t have them.
On Buffett: “He still made a very nice investment for himself.”
“The brands are ruined.”
The companies may lose their equity in (much-deserved) lawsuits.
Margins during boom reflected compromised objectivity, competing for market share.
Without official ratings the market would adjust to risks itself. Official ratings create an arbitrage opportunity: real credit risk is often higher than ratings imply (look at BP: downgraded by just “1/2 notch or something like that.” Ratings allow sharpies to front-run downgrades or prepare to take advantage of depressed prices following downgrades.
Agencies add little value. Market spreads are a much better indicator of risk.
I happen to have similar positions at the moment, though unlike Rogers, I’m a bear on commodities and China, which he seems to be perpetually long. Here’s today’s Bloomberg interview.
Take-aways:
- Long euro as a contrary position. Too many shorts out there.
- All these countries (Spain, Portugal, UK, US) are spending money they don’t have and it will continue.
- ECB buying government and private debt is wrong.
- EU is ignoring its own rules about bailouts from Maastricht Treaty.
- Governments are still trying to solve a problem of too much debt with more debt.
- Fundamentals are bad for all paper currencies. Good for gold.
- Is “contagion” limited now? Well, for those who get the money…
Here’s a longer interview from a few days ago on the same topics as well as stocks:
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- Rogers has a few stock shorts: emerging market index, NASDAQ stocks, and a large international financial institution.
- Rogers owns both silver and gold, but is not buying any more. He’s not buying anything here, “just watching.”
- Optimistic about Chinese currency. Expected it to rise more and faster, but still bullish.
- Thinking of adding shorts in next week or two if markets rally (my note: they have now).
- “Debts are so staggering, we’re all going to get hit with the problem,” no longer just our children and grandchildren.
Bloomberg’s Jonathan Weil writes a good column. Here he digs into the falacy often cited by executives of failing companies and politicians that short-sellers are responsible for drops in price:
Still Believing
So I asked a Morgan Stanley spokesman, Mark Lake, this week if the company’s executives still believed what Mack said in September 2008 about short sellers to be true. And if so, based on what evidence? No comment, he said. Mack wouldn’t talk either.
I got the same response at a conference in Phoenix last weekend when I posed similar questions to the SEC’s enforcement- division director, Robert Khuzami, who joined the agency about a year ago from Deutsche Bank AG. How are his staff’s short-seller investigations going? Found anything significant yet? No comment, he said. Cuomo’s office didn’t comment either.
My guess for why they have nothing to say is that the whole thing was a farce to begin with. Yet this same urban legend — that mysterious, unnamed short sellers and speculators somehow are to blame whenever markets plunge — still lives on.
In Greece, Prime Minister George Papandreou has tried to blame his country’s budget crisis on speculators who profited by buying credit-default swaps on Greece’s sovereign debt. Actually, it turns out Greece was shorting itself.
Paulson’s Evidence
One of the largest buyers of such swaps was the state- controlled Hellenic Postbank SA, which made a $47 million profit last year after it sold its $1.2 billion position, the Athens newspaper Kathimerini reported a few days ago. The bank’s former chairman later said Hellenic was just protecting Greek bonds it owns against a possible default, not speculating, though that doesn’t change the economics of the trade.
In his memoir, “On the Brink,” Paulson writes like a true believer. “Short sellers were laying the bank low,” he said, describing Mack’s plight a year and a half ago. “But John and his team weren’t about to go down without a fight.” What facts did Paulson cite in support of the notion that short sellers were harming Morgan Stanley, or that they had the capability to do so? None, of course.
Paulson mentioned only one short seller by name in his book, David Einhorn of Greenlight Capital, who shorted Lehman’s stock and warned other investors that the bank’s books were probably cooked. In that instance, however, Paulson said Einhorn was proven right, a point echoed in the findings of this month’s report by Lehman bankruptcy examiner Anton Valukas. (Paulson’s book didn’t name anyone who had shorted Morgan Stanley.)
Wrong Target
Einhorn also was right when he tried to warn the SEC in 2002 about the accounting practices of a business-development company called Allied Capital Corp. The SEC responded by turning around and investigating him, at Allied’s urging, without any basis for believing he’d done anything improper, as SEC Inspector General David Kotz’s office chronicled in a report released this week. Eventually, the SEC let the company off without any penalty, in spite of what the report called “specific, detailed allegations and evidence of wrongdoing by Allied.”
Here’s another idea for Kotz. How about investigating whether the SEC had any reasonable basis for believing Mack’s short-seller story in September 2008 when it acted on his pleas, and whether Mack had any plausible grounds to believe the story himself? Now there’s a probe that might turn up something.
Manuel Asensio’s Sold Short tells the story of a small hedge fund that sought out frauds to short and was eventually pushed out of the business by high-priced lawyers paid for with cash from pump-and-dumps.