As of early this AM, we have a trendline break on the hourly chart. Still none on the daily or monthly, but as we saw last week after a similar trendline break, this market is capable of cracking with little warning. This is a 1-month view of February gold futures. Last night’s high is the [...]

Markets have rebounded feebly from their early November bottom, with speculative interest focused in fewer sectors than in earlier risk binges. The hot money is now concentrated in big-cap US stocks over small-caps, and in gold over silver, reflecting a shift in preference for quality over junk.
With upside momentum taking a breather, we’re in another [...]

The tide is turning. We now have a strong, impulsive decline off the highs, confirmed by a rise in the dollar and declines in the metals, energy, and grains. Yes, we’ve seen this before (in June, August and September), but the sustained manic conditions (put/call ratio, DSI, etc) that we saw in mid-September and mid-October [...]

I’m again very bearish short-term, basically taking the approach that we’re topping until proven otherwise. I think we’re about to roll over like we have three times since early August. Indicators show that each recovery since then has further disheartened the bears and encouraged the bulls, which is as it should be, making each top [...]

The relative values of gold and silver are a measure of risk aversion, akin to the VIX. Silver is largely an industrial metal and reflects appetite for commodities in general, whereas gold is owned as hard cash for safety.
Witness the premium silver fetched in the commodities mania of 2007 to July 2008, and the soaring [...]

Dollar index here, with my annotations of readings in the Daily Sentiment Index (trade-futures.com) at extremes and turning points:

Dollar chart from Stockcharts.com
Clusters of low-mid single digit readings are very rare and very bullish. You all know what it means for stocks when the dollar makes a big break upwards.
For good measure, here’s the 3-year chart [...]

Here’s a roundup of the usual markets, plus a look at grains. This topping process is frustrating, but the action remains encouraging for those waiting to profit from a resumption of the deflation trade. Even as some stock indexes make new highs, they have been revealing their weakness with low volume and advance/decline ratios. The [...]

We haven’t seen this kind of bullishness on stocks since 2007. Pullbacks at every degree since the March lows have been shallow.  Volume and implied volatility have dwindled, and this month the put/call ratio has plunged while trader sentiment surveys have shot through the roof and levitated for three weeks. Tim Knight noted today that [...]

At the moment, everything is still up in the air, so to speak. The rollover into the sub-950 range is still on the table, since a bounce like the last 24 hours on weak internals (such as an advance:decline ratio of well under 2:1) should surprise no one. Despite the lack of oomph here, it [...]

S&P 500 e-mini futures, including overnight trading, 1-month view, 1-hour bar:

Interactive Brokers
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The story here is that nothing is confirmed yet. The megaphone pattern (expanding upward wedge) hasn’t been busted, so we could still make a new high here, though the strength of such an advance should be weak. Each leg up for the past several [...]