This classic risk ratio is in its own bull market. Look at the spike last week, which may kick off another monster rally in 2010. Interesting also how it turned up all the way back in September.

-
Checking the archives, I see that I charted this bottom as it happened.

-
Silver did make a peak just then [...]

In this 1-week chart, from top to bottom as of today’s highs, they are: palladium, platinum, gold and (the all-of-a-sudden quite unpopular) silver.

Source: Interactive Brokers
-
I have no position in gold or silver futures at the moment, but am shorting the other white metals. Platinum and palladium broke parabolic runs last month and fell very hard. [...]

The relative values of gold and silver are a measure of risk aversion, akin to the VIX. Silver is largely an industrial metal and reflects appetite for commodities in general, whereas gold is owned as hard cash for safety.
Witness the premium silver fetched in the commodities mania of 2007 to July 2008, and the soaring [...]

Here’s a roundup of the usual markets, plus a look at grains. This topping process is frustrating, but the action remains encouraging for those waiting to profit from a resumption of the deflation trade. Even as some stock indexes make new highs, they have been revealing their weakness with low volume and advance/decline ratios. The [...]

At the moment, everything is still up in the air, so to speak. The rollover into the sub-950 range is still on the table, since a bounce like the last 24 hours on weak internals (such as an advance:decline ratio of well under 2:1) should surprise no one. Despite the lack of oomph here, it [...]

That was one heck of a reversal in bonds today off a beautiful double bottom Wednesday and Thursday. Here’s TLT:

The move was so extreme for bond-land that I sold all of my June 90 calls bought under 91, though I’m holding my unlevered TLT.
The dollar extended its decline, though it is looking every bit like [...]

Another short post here.
Within a week or two I expect a correction or change of trend regarding this “reflation” theme we are seeing. The bond panic is coinciding with toppy looking activity in oil, precious metals and grains. I’m buying puts on crude today with the July contract at 65.33.
The dollar is also a buy [...]

I have no strong opinion on near term market direction. I was prepared for this little downward correction, as for the larger bounce off 666 on the S&P500, but am highly ambivalent about where we go from this juncture.
Has this been a four month flat correction?
A case can be made that the entirety of market [...]

“Even Hitler got whacked in gold stocks”

Nadler is great to read because he’s in the precious metals industry (Kitco is a bullion dealer), but he isn’t a perma-bull. He takes a non-hysterical approach to the market, and provides insights into internal supply and demand forces.
This is a long interview, published here. Here’s an excerpt:
“…If deflationary pressures really take hold, we may [...]