This is a big, rounded top. It’s taking its time, though it is still compressed relative to the ‘03 - ‘07 cycle wave top.
This week’s strength was very impressive and could mean new highs on the Dow and SPX in the next couple of weeks if that previous wave is any guide. Our January-February ‘10 [...]

There is a huge wall of resistance overhead here, and the upward momentum from the first half of 2009 is simply gone.

Prophet.net
Perhaps it’s time for another look at this chart:

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UPDATE: Pej sent me this updated reset chart, which gives a closer view:

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FAZ (triple bear financials) has toasted so many traders in the last 12 months, [...]

No strong conclusions here, just some food for thought:
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Prophet.net
You can also see a possible 30-day pattern: 30 days down, then a ramp. Let’s put this in perspective. Here’s a 5-year weekly chart. All I can note here is a divergence on the RSI over the last few months:

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I’ve also noticed how Treasury bonds have resembled [...]

(First published 3.3.10, 1:27PM EST)
I’ve noticed lately how well the 60-min RSI (relative strength index — a measure of oomph in price movement) has been doing, so today I decided to quantify it. The result is simply spectacular, even with a mechanical buy/sell decision that always had you in the market either long or short.
Here is [...]

These two have the furthest to fall, and are really still in the process of making an historic secular bull market top.
The Russell looks like it’s forming a giant head and shoulders:

Prophet.net
See those RSI trends on the bottom? This is a market that’s running out of steam. We know from mutual fund reports that managers [...]

Nothing to do with the earthquake of course — by late Monday, Sunday night’s spike was retraced to where copper closed on Friday, once traders calmed down and actually read the news reports that copper production and transport facilities were fine.
In the 3.29 - 3.35 range this morning, it was trading about where I’d expect [...]

Reports indicate copper mines and ports are in good shape. The futures market seems to be overreacting.
Copper futures just opened an hour ago with a 6% pop from Friday’s close, up to just under $3.50 per pound. Traders are concerned about a supply pinch, since Chile produces 36% of the world’s copper. Bloomberg reports that [...]

If it so chooses:
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The VIX has reset nicely:

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It would be very predictable if stocks just rolled back over and had a very bad day:

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The caveat of course is that yesterday was a powerful move up, hinting that there could be more to come. That’s what stops are for, and we’ve got plenty of clear ones here.

In stocks, this whole gap/ramp sequence is something we’ve seen at a lot of tops in the last six months. Just compare it to January:

Prophet.net
We’ll need a solid break of Monday’s high to suggest that we’re not going down here. No matter what happens, remember, this is not 2004. Try to remember what 2004 felt [...]