Bill Laggner interview: Greece, GS, derivatives, etc.

Eric King always does a good interview, and Bill Laggner is a hedge fund manager (Bearing Fund, LP) who has been on top of the credit bubble and bust. He comes at things from an Austrian perspective.

Listen here.

Some take-aways:

- People of wealth around the world have lost faith in their respective governments.

- There is a limit to government borrowing, but establishment economists and politicians are very complacent right up to the end.

- Goldman’s swap transactions on Greek debt.

- Good luck getting Greece to go from 14% deficit to 3%.  Mathematically impossible — Greece must default like Argentina did in 2001. They’ll probably leave Eurozone, and this may be best for each of them.

- Portugal, Ireland and Spain face the same issue. Spreads blowing out. Puts heavy pressure on European banks.

- Politicians and talking heads are saying sovereign debt issue is contained, just like they said sub-prime was contained.

- European banks are at least as levered as US banks were two years ago.

- We’re at a juncture where we can print and delay or default and get it over with.

- Some countries may realize they are better off defaulting than taking IMF money and being slaves.

- GS people have been hired by Greek government to advise on bailout.

- Monetary elites like GS face a risk of the structured finance business, their bread and butter, disappearing.

- GS and others don’t produce capital. They speculate and then siphon money from taxpayers when they lose.

- Goldman’s proprietary trading book is highly lucrative, much more so than most other investment banks’. They make money over 90% of the time – how is that possible if it’s all honest?

- Goldman was a credit facility for New Century, one of the worst loan originators in sub-prime. We’ll find out more about their roll in helping build a market for junk mortgages. Possible exposure of fraudulent practices.

- Goldman sold a lot of this mortgage paper on leverage — they provided loans to funds to let them go levered long CDOs.

- Civil litigation will open up Pandora’s Box. Where there illegal activities within Goldman? Possible reputational risk. If they survive, they’ll be a shell of their former self.

- US has the same problems as Europe. US cities and states are just as bankrupt as Greece.

- Local politicians are corrupt and clueless and bankers took advantage of them, as in Jefferson County Alabama.

- Criminal proceedings in Italy against Deutsche Bank should provide insight into possible bribery and fraud related to derivative transactions.

- Expect litigation related to US city and state derivative transactions, as in Jefferson County Alabama.

- Expect increased outrage towards bankers.

- No transparency in US financial system.

- As states and cities go bankrupt, expect them to default on derivative transactions and enter litigation.

- (My own note: what about government employee unions? If you’re looking for an explanation for municipal and state bankruptcies, look there first.)

- US financial reform bill doesn’t solve anything. Still have the moral hazard of too-big-to-fail.

- Geithner is walking moral hazard.

- Amazing rally in risk assets over the last 14 months. Complete about-face in sentiment. New low in bearishness.

- Bill and partner Kevin Duffy are two of the few remaining bears left on the planet.

- VIX is ticking back up, Fed has ended a key lending program, sentiment is too extreme, leading economic indicators are rolling over. Stimulus will wear off like any drug, and there has been nothing done to sustain economy.

- If central banks hit the accelerators on their printing presses to bail out bankrupt governments we could enter a hyperinflationary mode. If we go the route of default, that could be avoided (deflation).

Fabrice Tourre, Scapegoat

Today’s civil fraud charges against Goldman were a surprise, but the devil is in the details, and the case against the firm doesn’t look particularly strong. Goldman claims to have actually lost $90M by investing in the ABACUS CDO (Bloomberg), and lead investor (and major loser) ACA actually had ultimate authority over the securities selected and knew of short-seller Paulson & Co’s involvement in the selection process (though not that they were shorting) as pointed out in an excellect article by Henry Blodget :

In reality, however, to make this case, ACA is going to have to make the embarrassing admission that knowing what Paulson & Co was going to do affected its judgment with respect to the transaction.  This information should NOT have affected ACA’s security selection process.  It should also not have affected ACA’s decision to go forward with the deal.  ACA is an independent firm staffed with experienced professionals paid millions of dollars to evaluate securities by themselves. What Paulson was or wasn’t planning to do, therefore, should have been irrelevant.

We also know that Goldman knew in advance about the SEC’s plans, and that the man picked out for a public stoning, Fabrice Tourre, is a Frenchman who was only 27 or 28 at the time of the misdeeds in question. The CDO business was the cash cow of the bubble years and a prime focus from the executive suite on down. Was this kid really that important in the scheme of things?

Tourre admitted in emails that he didn’t even understand CDOs very well. It is just a joke that this is the best scapegoat that they could come up with. Did Goldman bring civil charges against itself on a weak and obscure point via minions (like Adam Storch) at SEC in order to create a safe outlet for the mounting public outrage? It certainly looks that way from here.

Wake me up when a Goldman employee or alumnus over 40 with a net worth over $100m goes to jail.

Will Bill Gross please shut up?

“if we are to prevent a continuing asset and debt liquidation of near historic proportions, we will require policies that open up the balance sheet of the U.S. Treasury…” Bill Gross, September Investment Outlook

This guy continues to disgust me. If Americans before him had held the notions about markets that he does, there would be no wealth for him to manage, and he would not be a billionaire. This would be Venezuela.

Here is an excerpt from his latest bailout plea:

This rarely observed systematic debt liquidation is what confronts the U.S. and perhaps even the global financial system at the current time. Unchecked, it can turn a campfire into a forest fire, a mild asset bear market into a destructive financial tsunami. Central bankers, of course, adopting the cloak and demeanor of firefighters or perhaps lifeguards, have been hard at work over the past 12 months to contain the damage. And the private market, in its attempt to anticipate a bear market bottom and snap up “bargains,” has been constructive as well. Over $400 billion in bank- and finance-related capital has been raised during the past year, a decent amount of it, by the way, having been bought by yours truly and my associates at PIMCO. Too bad for us and for everyone else who bought too soon. There are few of these deals now priced at par or above, which is bondspeak for “they are all underwater.” We, as well as our SWF and central bank counterparts, are reluctant to make additional commitments.

Step 2 on our delevering blackboard therefore has stalled and is inevitably morphing towards Step 3. Assets are still being liquidated but there is an increasing reluctance on the part of the private market to risk any more of its own capital. Liquidity is drying up; risk appetites are anorexic; asset prices, despite a temporarily resurgent stock market, are mainly going down; now even oil and commodity prices are drowning. There may be a Jim Cramer bull market somewhere, but it’s primarily a mirage unless and until we get the entrance of new balance sheets, and a new source of liquidity willing to support asset prices. …

A Depression-era bank robber named Willie Sutton once said that the reason he robbed banks was because “that’s where the money is.” Illegal for sure, but close to an 800 SAT score for logic if you were in the business of stealing other people’s money. And now, while some will compare current government bailouts to Slick Willie, citing moral hazard, near criminal regulatory neglect, and further bailouts for Wall Street and the rich, common sense can lead to no other conclusion: if we are to prevent a continuing asset and debt liquidation of near historic proportions, we will require policies that open up the balance sheet of the U.S. Treasury – not only to Freddie and Fannie but to Mom and Pop on Main Street U.S.A., via subsidized home loans issued by the FHA and other government institutions. A 21st century housing-related version of the RTC such as advocated by Larry Summers amongst others could be another example of the government wallet or balance sheet that is required during rare periods when the private sector is unable or unwilling to step forward.

The bill for our collective speculative profligacy, obvious in the deflating asset markets, can be paid now or it can be paid later. Those aspiring for a perfect 800 on the Wall Street policy exam would conclude that the tab will be less if paid up front, than if swept under a rug of moral umbrage intent on seeking retribution for any and all of those responsible. Now that the Fed has spent 12 months proving that it “knows something…knows something,” it is time for the Treasury to do likewise.

Sorry, Bill, I’m not scared. Systemic debt liquidation is exactly what the country needs right now, and actions like this are exactly what laid the groundwork for this bubble, by absolving bankers and guys like you from responsibility for your actions. To repeat these mistakes on such a massive scale would distort our economy into a perverse and Orwellian system for the sole benefit of politically connected billionaires.

Is Gross really that cynical?

If he’s not cynical, he’s dumb, and I doubt any self-made billionaire investor could be this dense. As Carl Denninger points out, Gross bought much of this mortgage debt over the last 12 months, at a big discount, surely with the full intention of lobbying for a bailout of his positions (he has been using his column, media appearances, and certainly contacts in Washington to do just that). A man with this kind of character could only be rewarded with wealth and prestige in a society that has gone completely off the deep end. Time to drain and scrub the pool.