Tag Archives: Merkel

Credit default swaps are harmless to all but those who sell them.

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There is a meme going around that because some financial players own CDS on Greek debt and the prices on those swaps have increased, that the actual risk of default is now higher as a result of the price increases. See this article in the New York Times, which is dependably ignorant of and hostile towards markets:

Bets by some of the same banks that helped Greece shroud its mounting debts may actually now be pushing the nation closer to the brink of financial ruin.

Echoing the kind of trades that nearly toppled the American International Group, the increasingly popular insurance against the risk of a Greek default is making it harder for Athens to raise the money it needs to pay its bills, according to traders and money managers.

This is akin to saying that when the price of a weather derivative on say a cold Florida winter increases, the actual chance of frost on the orange trees is higher, simply because some traders have a vested interest in that outcome.

Actually, if anything, the availability of swaps on credit cheapens the cost of that credit, benefiting the borrower, since lenders are able to shift some or much of the risk to third parties. The fact that some buyers of CDS do not own the underlying bonds only serves to add liquidity to the market and even further reduce the cost of insurance.

I suspect that when players like Angela Merkel blame swaps for Greece’s situation, they are being disingenuous and simply trying to extort hedge funds and other players in the market and win points with the public. In the case of Greek politicians, it is a very convenient way to shift blame.

Sarkozy: Greek bailout will be good for the Euro

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Of course this man doesn’t care a whit for the truth, so he is either an economic ignoramous (quite probable for a French lawyer and politician) or just plain lying when he makes statements like the following:

“If we created the euro, we cannot let a country fall that is in the eurozone,” said Sarkozy yesterday before a meeting with Papandreou in Paris today. “Otherwise there was no point in creating the euro. We must support Greece because they are making an effort.”

EU leaders have so far refused to give financial aid to Greece and have ordered the government to cut its budget deficit, the EU’s highest, on its own. While Papandreou says steps taken this past week to slash the shortfall warrant more help from the EU, German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle said yesterday that his country is “not going to write a blank check.”

Of course, a Greek default would strengthen the euro, since billions in balances would go poof, thus increasing the worth of the remainder. A bailout here will lead to bailouts in every Mediteranean country, quite possibly including his own. Pray tell, how will creating hundreds of billions more euros firm up their value? On the other hand, if every nation in the eurozone but Germany defaulted and then quit the euro for their old pesos, lire, francs and drachmae, it would be very strong and the Germans would just rename it Deutschemark.

Papandreou is visiting Berlin, Paris and Washington after his government passed a 4.8 billion euro ($6.5 billion) austerity package on March 5. A poll published in To Vima newspaper today showed 51.9 percent of voters support him even after the cuts, compared with 47.5 percent who don’t.

Sarkozy, who didn’t say financial support would be forthcoming, will meet Papandreou in the Elysee Palace around 6 p.m. local time. They will brief reporters afterwards.

Watch out, Americans. You don’t suppose that this American-born, Harvard-groomed oligarch is trying to take your money to prop up his racket, do you?

Final Resort?

Papandreou is indicating that Greece may still need financial support and is prepared to turn to the IMF if necessary, calling it a “final resort” on March 3.

That prompted a rebuff from European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet a day later because finance officials fret such a move would signal the EU isn’t capable of solving its own problems. Italian Finance Minister Giulio Tremonti is nevertheless refusing to rule out a role for the IMF in any aid package.

“The IMF should act as a bank” in any rescue, he told reporters in Venice yesterday. “We finance the IMF so it can use the funds around the world. Why not use that capital with the IMF acting as a bank with its know-how?”

Tremonti also said that the EU could issue “eurobonds” or coordinate the sale of euro-denominated government bonds to better counter “financial speculation.”

Sounds like a bit of a turf war there between the IMF and the ECB, each vying with the other to administer the bailout and control the situation for their respective backers.  The IMF gets much of its funding from the US, so let’s root for the Frenchman here.

As Greece calls for more help, Merkel on March 5 turned her focus to restricting the use of derivatives to halt “speculators” from exploiting countries’ budget deficits. Greece has done its work and Europe and the U.S. must now ensure that financial-market speculators aren’t allowed to inflict further damage on Greece or on other countries, she said.

Merkel shows she’s not above the dishonest game of shifting blame to the markets for having the gall to recognise that Greece’s credit risk might a tad bit elevated.