Manufacturers: 70% of jobs lost are not coming back.

This via Dave Rosenberg (free sign-up required):

BLEAK JOB MARKET OUTLOOK

We said before that what really stood out in this “Great Recession” was the permanency of the job decay. Of the eight million jobs lost, three-quarters were in positions that are not likely coming back.

We just heard from the National Association of Manufacturers that fewer than 30% of the manufacturing jobs lost in the sector will be recouped in the next six years. So here’s a bit of math: if this holds true for the economy as a whole, and assuming a normal cyclical upturn in the labour force participation rate, then the nationwide unemployment rate would be 15% in six years’ time. How anyone can believe that we can squeeze inflation out of that scenario is truly one of life’s many mysteries.

We have to let Kondratieff winter play out and do its job of debt liquidation before the long-term employment cycle can start up again. With extend-and-pretend and mark-to-fantasy, this is going to be a long process.

Long Wave Analyst

As for manufacturing jobs, good luck with that. The US educational system pretty much seals the fate of anything engineering rated — my advice there is keep your kids out of those unionized prisons. Better to pool resources with friends and hire tutors and (Chinese-speaking) nannies. I wonder, how many government teachers can an iPad replace?

Detroit, model for future US?

Hat tip to Mish for this explanation of how government ruined one of the wealthiest cities in the world:

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Now, if the government had let Chrysler and GM go under, their factories would have been bought by Toyota and Honda and their employees would be turning out cars that people actually want, not gems like the Aztec:

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