This via Dave Rosenberg (free sign-up required):
BLEAK JOB MARKET OUTLOOK
We said before that what really stood out in this “Great Recession” was the permanency of the job decay. Of the eight million jobs lost, three-quarters were in positions that are not likely coming back.
We just heard from the National Association of Manufacturers that fewer than 30% of the manufacturing jobs lost in the sector will be recouped in the next six years. So here’s a bit of math: if this holds true for the economy as a whole, and assuming a normal cyclical upturn in the labour force participation rate, then the nationwide unemployment rate would be 15% in six years’ time. How anyone can believe that we can squeeze inflation out of that scenario is truly one of life’s many mysteries.
We have to let Kondratieff winter play out and do its job of debt liquidation before the long-term employment cycle can start up again. With extend-and-pretend and mark-to-fantasy, this is going to be a long process.
Long Wave Analyst
As for manufacturing jobs, good luck with that. The US educational system pretty much seals the fate of anything engineering rated — my advice there is keep your kids out of those unionized prisons. Better to pool resources with friends and hire tutors and (Chinese-speaking) nannies. I wonder, how many government teachers can an iPad replace?