The dollar has been the ultimate carry trade currency. Borrow it cheaply and readily, invest in anything at all, and you will be a winner! That was then, this is now, the Great Unwinding:
- Housing down.
- Stocks down, especially foreign stocks.
- Metals, energy and grains down. Did you see the latest hedgies to get carried out?
- Foreign currencies down.
Am I missing anything? What else was bought in spades with cheap and depreciating dollars and has yet to start falling hard?
- Commercial real estate is teetering.
- Municipalities and states are pretending to get tough on spending, but they’ll default.
- Corporate defaults are ticking up, but from a very low base.
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Note: It isn’t just low rates that invite a carry trade, but also a falling currency being handed out in buckets by drunken bankers.