Tice has prepared for this bust his whole career and has been cool as a cucumber since it started. He’s an E-waver and thinks we’re on the verge of the big C-wave that destroys all hope.
It is worth noting that the S&P500 Daily Sentiment Index reached 85% recently, and this more than any other signal says to me that we have topped for now. The question now is what happens if and when we drop 50-100 S&P points: do we bounce up to a new high, bounce around a range for several weeks, or keep on going right through 666?
One could probably do worse than taking a position in BEARX right now or scaling in over the next few months.
I saw that interview. I’ve been following him too. I have the same concerns that you address. The Elliot wave newsletter says we are still on wave 2 and it can reach higher. If I were to guess it will probably pull back to about 7800 and top off at 10,000 in fall, and then armaggedon. Of course this is all speculation
It feels to me like we are in the “eye of the hurricane.” But for how long?
It is conceivable that the Fed is propping up the market by purchasing spy’s via MS, GS, etc., allowing banks to issue new equity. The whole market is worth less than what the Fed had already committed, so there is enough liquidity. A few well placed tens of billions could do the trick. I write this only to point out that old market rules may no longer apply. Shorting the govnmt is a sure-fire way to get burned. Better make nice and shake hands instead.
I am Kynikos, and I prefer this name now.
LEONARD, I believe that would be called that “Taxpayer Assurance Equities Facility”
“Prediction two. With public pension systems and tens of millions of 401k holders virtually wiped out—and with the Baby Boomers retiring en masse—there will be tremendous pressure on the government to get into the stock market in order to bid up prices.
Therefore, sometime in 2010, the Federal Reserve will create and loan out hundreds of billions of fresh dollars to the usual well-connected suspects, instructing them to buy up stocks on the public’s behalf. This scheme will have a fancy but meaningless name—something like the “Taxpayer Assurance Equities Facility”. It will have no effect other than to serve as buyer of last resort for capitulating smart-money types who want to get out of stocks entirely.”
http://blog.nationmultimedia.com/print.php?id=9121
(I got deleted on Seeking Alpha)
Thanks for posting the Tice interview. I hadn’t seen that one.