He said that exactly 12 months ago yesterday:
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Here he is again on November 23 last year, calling for another decline in 2010 at least as bad as 2008, as well as a bullish call on the dollar:
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And here is a video from Yahoo just a few days ago. Crappy quality on this recording, but not unwatchable. He shows that mutual fund cash levels are at record lows, meaning managers are “all in.”
Also, individual investors have piled into municipal and corporate bonds, which are awfully risky at these prices.
I have a bearish outlook, but in the near term I wonder if the next major stock market decline will have to wait until extreme sentiment in Eur/Usd shakes out.
Well we are one more step closer with the SEC putting limits on short selling again, thought they would have learned from 2008 but evidently not. Just wish I could deal with the volatility better this time than I did in 2008.
Well, I’ve heard Prechter say that lately he tends to just put on intermediate-term positions and hold them – short and hold, so to speak. He won the US Trading Championship in the ’80s with a 444% gain in a few months, but he’s said that he prefers to write and speak about socionomics these days, as opposed to actively trade.
On bonds, Louise Yamada predicts bear market in long bonds is already starting or about to start.
http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/02/yamada-ready-for-a-bond-bear-market.html
On a technical note, there are many evidences that it may be the case. But fundamentally, I definitely disagree w/ her saying that if China stops buying the rates are going to rise. Americans turning into savers are going to put a huge bid on this and it can easily deluge the selling by foreign govts.
Mike, I’m more or less of the same view w/ you that long UST are going to have a bid up during the deflationary pressures — at least on the early stages. However, at the later stages of the crash (if indeed it really comes as Prechter envisioned), do we likely to get the worst of both worlds, i.e. equities & govt bonds selling off, leaving perhaps only USD as the safehaven?
I’m trying to enlighten some friends but I can’t find anything about Prechter being influenced by the Austrians (though a lot of what he says indicates it, and one of his articles has been published on mises.org)… Mike?
Well, his understanding of the credit cycle as business cycle is straight Austrian, with a socionomics twist (positing the patterns of herding behavior as the ultimate cause). He is also an uncompromising libertarian and cynical critic of politics.
He has described himself as a “philosophical gold bug.”