8 Responses to “Phew, the storm has passed…”

1. Axclr8
   August 13th, 2009 at 3:47 pm

   

   Today from Bill Fleckenstein:

   “A “Dismal Science” Signal

   In terms of what may happen in the economy over the next six to nine months, yesterday’s Wall Street Journal sent a signal that folks may be able to navigate by. The paper posted the results of its survey of economists: Out of the 47 they spoke to, 27 said the recession had ended and 11 think that we will see the trough by the end of this month.
   Any time you get 38 out of 47 mainstream economists to agree on something, generally they are going to be wrong. Thus, if history is any guide, the recession is almost certainly not over, to judge by this survey. The discussion of the recession being over, housing being at a bottom, etc. will be with us for quite some time, as I expect lots of stops and starts as the epic forces at work continue to clash with each other.”

2. PEJ
   August 13th, 2009 at 5:18 pm

   

   Well, we’ll see. It seems like Robert Prechter’s 5th wave was wrong in 2000, 2004. We’ll see if it was true in 2007.

   Mike: I finished reading Conquer the Crash, which was a pretty good read even though the “book 2″ was quite useless to me and probably to most people who can understand the point he is trying to make. I have received “The Elliott Wave Principle” as well, which I’ll start reading tomorrow. But nonetheless, poor Bob has been completely wrong on almost all the calls he has made in Conquer the Crash, and it seems like he’s been wrong on the calls he made a few months ago, again.
   Not sure what to think yet

3. Axclr8
   August 13th, 2009 at 8:12 pm

   

   Again, my target is for a 15% correction to satisfy the Bulls “checkmark” / “Green Light” that stocks are fairly valued … and WHAMO! Dow 12000 / Naz 2500 / S&P 1250 …
   into Q1 … and the Mr. Market becomes a Bear ….

4. jason bourne
   August 14th, 2009 at 3:32 am

   

   Shanghai Market seems to be doing exactly the reverse it has been doing the past 8 months. Big downs followed by big downs, interrupted by small ups, continued again by big downs. Around -3% (2.98%) today

   Apparently, liqudity is getting dry. Talk about China leading the global growth? Think again. It might well be China is leading the global BUST… again, just like it did in October 2007.

   Furthermore, if CNY/USD is to drop, that will be the coffin nail for commodity bulls for a few years to come.

5. PEJ
   August 16th, 2009 at 2:14 pm

   

   Mike and al. : Not sure you heard this, but Bill Fleckenstein things it’s still too dangerous to take the other side of this massive rally.

   Don’t know if you know him, but he had a short-only hedge fund for about 10 years and just closed it last year.

6. Axclr8
   August 16th, 2009 at 9:02 pm

   

   Hi PEJ: Yep, Bill Fleckenstein follows the inflation doctrine and not deflation ie. money printing will lead stocks higher no matter what. Eric Jantzen at iTulip is predicting a China top and 4th quarter crash in their market. That could be the grenade to set it all off. Minyanville is calling for a repeat of 2008 with an end-of-year collapse (breaking the lows). Again a panic into the dollar, again deflationary scares — and this time the Fed starts the presses at ludicrous speed. Same with Precheter etc …

   Who knows .. the Bearish Analysts are back and imo, things happens when you least expect them and thehy never follow your timing … we can just make good guesses .. Bill also was calling for a collapese in 2005 through 2006 through (yawn!) … through 2007 … then finally in 2008 … when it happend … he WAS right eventaully like most others who were calling it for 4 years … I don’t belive any of them anymore … This was my best indicator … some idiot on the FOX news network (guy with a pony tail) was raving about how he has 10 500K Homes and he is going to buy more as this market is not not going to stop going up …. Another one,
   travelling in Business Class from Hong Kong to Tokyo in April 2007 and was sitting next to this stock broker from Nomura - she said that NOTHING is going to stop this market and if the Remembi goes higher (drops the USD peg) then the market will surge … etc …. when everyone believes in the same thing … the market will do exactly the opposite …

   Went out shoppng this weekend, the consumer is back in full force at Target etc… however the high end Malls here in Charlotte have people walking around but not bags … Went to the BMW dealership Friday to talk to a buddy and he said they had a great July but it was dead until then … this dealership is in the heart of retirementville … well these people have had their portfolios cut in half so who knows …. went to meet a local restraunt owner in the heart of the “rich” areas here, he says he’s down 20% sales YoY. He’s not investing in the Market anymore either … all in CASH …

   Lots of noise … completely different environment …

7. Axclr8
   August 16th, 2009 at 11:57 pm

   

   Yep, Real Estate is never going to collapse …

   Fox News video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yoZV5jt9puc

   1 Year later: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sicyi17cT2c

   The guy with the pony tail (actually long hippy hair) - Tom Adkins and dumb ass Mike Norman … losers!

   Love the latest blog from Mish: http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_nSTO-vZpSgc/SlWZstbTz7I/AAAAAAAAGb4/2PJ8OabU4Ds/s1600-h/japan-land-prices-update-2009-07-09-rgb-176-10-10.png

8. Pej
   August 17th, 2009 at 3:42 am

   

   Oh well, we’ll see. Personally, I tend to believe that Bernanke will not monetize debt…

   … until the next big leg down. Once deflation really starts biting, they will start again the QE to kill this monster that rewards savers and prudent people so that he can reward again reckless spending and borrowing.

   Do not forget that he is a Keynesian Fool. It’s really hard for me to believe that they would behave any other way…