Look at the similarity between the March 2008 peak and immediate aftermath and what we’ve seen since the December high in gold:
Prophet.net
Sure, there could be a little more oomph here for a push like that close second peak in ’08, but just because gold hasn’t dropped like a stone doesn’t mean the mania will go on without a hiccup. Each high was accompanied by extremely high and sustained bullishness, which tends to exhaust the upside for at least a few months, since after such an event everyone has already bought all the gold they want for the time being.
Also, if the euro’s run is over, why not gold’s? For all its timelessness, the markets still treat it like another currency, a highly-speculative one at that. Here is a euro chart where I’ve highlighted the same periods as above:
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I am going to view any near-term upside with an eye towards taking a short position in each of these, though of course I own physical gold for safety’s sake.
The announcement the other day of the inflation rate at 4.5% coming out of nowhere, shocking all the talking heads, may mean that the multi trillion dollar debts we’ve piled up may mean real price inflation is closer than we think…..
Meanwhile yesterday I paid $10.33 for a 10 ounce bottle of maple syrup. About a year ago, the same bottle was $5.12. Anecdotal, but worrisome you must admit!
Might have something to do with the lack of global warming:
http://us.mobile.reuters.com/mobile/m/AnyArticle/p.rdt?URL=http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE53500H20090406
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601099&refer=dine&sid=ah5DD99EXVkw
check out indexmundi.com for long-term charts of all kinds of odd commodities. Most are below their 2008 highs, and many of those highs only matched 1970s peaks.
As for grocery prices, consider that a loaf of bread contains about
$0.05 of wheat, the same as in the ’70s, and even at times nearly 100 years ago. Commodity prices are clearly not the issue there.