It would be nice and tidy if this morning’s 1036 print on ES turned out to be the low for a couple of weeks or even a month or two. Stock indexes made a price extreme unaccompanied by new highs in the VIX or yen or new lows in the euro, pound, copper, silver, gold and many bellweather stocks. The later rally was fast, furious and broad.
Here’s how this week in ES looks to me in the scheme of things. A right shoulder would be beautiful here:
TD Ameritrade
To re-iterate, I’m a huge bear for the 6-18 month horizon (my SPX target is an indecent number well under last year’s lows). I’m bullish for the 1-6 week horizon — I anticipate scaling back into a heavy short position in stocks, copper and oil on any rally here.
Today sure looked like an absolutely textbook wave 5 capper. EWI and Daneric both called it very well. Even while we were making new lows I was having to give up a lot of the spread to sell puts; it was clear we weren’t going to get follow-through to the downside.